Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 98% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
CHI
DETKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
CHI
22.8
proj pts
Total O/U
53.2
pts
DET
30.4
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Detroit Lions Offense
35.3 PPG vs Chicago Bears (allows 25.5)
Chicago Bears Offense
14.8 PPG vs Detroit Lions (allows 30.7)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Lions -18.3
Total O/U
52.7
Upset %
-9690%
Momentum Score
Detroit Lions Edges
Home field advantage
Superior scoring offense (+20.5 PPG)
Better win percentage (67% vs 17%)
Chicago Bears Edges
Suffocating defense (25.5 pts allowed)
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Detroit Lions by 18.3 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Chicago Bears
Head Coach
Ben Johnson
Starting QB
Caleb Williams
innovative, Williams-tailored system built around his arm talent and mobility
developing defensive scheme focused on creating turnovers
Detroit Lions
Head Coach
Dan Campbell
Starting QB
Jared Goff
physical, run-first attack that creates explosive passing opportunities off play-action
aggressive, assignment-sound defense that prioritizes stopping the run
Key Players
Williams' arm talent and mobility make him one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. His ability to make difficult throws in tight windows and extend plays with his legs gives Chicago an explosive ceiling.
Goff has evolved into one of the NFL's most accurate quarterbacks within Campbell's system. His ability to process quickly and deliver in rhythm makes the Lions' play-action passing game consistently explosive.
Moore's route precision and ability to create separation against press coverage give Williams a reliable target at every level of the field.
St. Brown's ability to consistently create separation in the slot and convert on third downs has made him Goff's most reliable option. He leads the team in contested catch situations.
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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Week 6 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Detroit Lions to win the Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Week 6 2026 matchup with 98% confidence. The model gives the Detroit Lions a 98% win probability and the Chicago Bears a 2% win probability.
When and where is the Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions game?+
The Chicago Bears face the Detroit Lions on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC, hosted at Ford Field. The game airs on FOX.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 6 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 98% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions game?+
The Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions Week 6 game is scheduled to air on FOX. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
FOX
Venue
Ford Field