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NFL Predictions Hub
ML-Powered · XGBoost Model

NFL Game
Predictions

Trained on 1,136 games across 4 seasons. Rolling team efficiency metrics, strict time-series validation, zero data leakage.

Model Accuracy

61.8%

Games Predicted

244

Training Seasons

2021–2024

Model Accuracy

61.8%

vs ~57% home-win baseline

Favorite Split

Home Fav
Away Fav

Confidence Distribution

Top Picks This Week

(highest confidence)
#1 PickWk 6
CHI
@
DET
DET wins
98% confidence
#2 PickWk 15
NO
@
ATL
ATL wins
97% confidence
#3 PickWk 9
NO
@
WAS
WAS wins
96% confidence
#4 PickWk 8
PIT
@
BAL
BAL wins
95% confidence
#5 PickWk 10
PIT
@
BAL
BAL wins
95% confidence

All Predictions

Week 1
18 games

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 87% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

87%ARI
ARI 87%
CAR 13%

Team Profile

ARI
CAR

Key Factors

ARIStatCAR
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +1.5
24.5
23.8
PA/G (Def)ARI +8.5
32.3
2.2
Point DiffARI +10.0
-7.8
33%
Win Rate
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

81%BAL
KC 20%
BAL 81%

Team Profile

KC
BAL

Key Factors

KCStatBAL
22.0
PPG (Off)BAL +9.3
31.3
19.5
PA/G (Def)BAL +5.5
14.0
2.5
Point DiffBAL +14.8
17.3
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Green Bay Packers. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%PHI
GB 47%
PHI 53%

Team Profile

GB
PHI

Key Factors

GBStatPHI
25.3
PPG (Off)PHI +7.8
33.2
20.0
PA/G (Def)PHI +1.5
18.5
5.3
Point DiffPHI +9.3
14.7
33%
Win RatePHI +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Jets. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%BUF
BUF 83%
NYJ 17%

Team Profile

BUF
NYJ

Key Factors

BUFStatNYJ
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +5.5
22.3
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +6.7
27.0
7.5
Point DiffBUF +12.2
-4.7
67%
Win RateBUF +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%ATL
PIT 23%
ATL 77%

Team Profile

PIT
ATL

Key Factors

PITStatATL
16.3
PPG (Off)ATL +7.8
24.2
25.2
PA/G (Def)ATL +0.3
24.8
-8.8
Point DiffATL +8.2
-0.7
17%
Win RateATL +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 63% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

63%HOU
IND 37%
HOU 63%

Team Profile

IND
HOU

Key Factors

INDStatHOU
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +5.2
18.3
29.5
PA/G (Def)HOU +9.7
19.8
-6.0
Point DiffHOU +4.5
-1.5
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%JAX
JAX 68%
TEN 32%

Team Profile

JAX
TEN

Key Factors

JAXStatTEN
18.7
PPG (Off)JAX +0.5
18.2
19.8
PA/G (Def)JAX +8.5
28.3
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +9.0
-10.2
33%
Win RateJAX +33%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%MIA
NE 38%
MIA 62%

Team Profile

NE
MIA

Key Factors

NEStatMIA
17.8
PPG (Off)MIA +3.8
21.7
28.2
PA/G (Def)MIA +6.8
21.3
-10.3
Point DiffMIA +10.7
0.3
17%
Win RateMIA +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 84% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

84%TB
WAS 16%
TB 84%

Team Profile

WAS
TB

Key Factors

WASStatTB
30.0
PPG (Off)TB +1.2
31.2
30.3
PA/G (Def)TB +11.7
18.7
-0.3
Point DiffTB +12.8
12.5
83%
Win RateWAS +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%CAR
NO 23%
CAR 77%

Team Profile

NO
CAR

Key Factors

NOStatCAR
12.7
PPG (Off)CAR +11.8
24.5
23.0
PA/G (Def)NO +9.3
32.3
-10.3
Point DiffCAR +2.5
-7.8
17%
Win RateCAR +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

San Francisco 49ers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 72% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

72%SF
SF 72%
DAL 28%

Team Profile

SF
DAL

Key Factors

SFStatDAL
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
29.3
PA/G (Def)DAL +4.5
24.8
-7.8
Point DiffDAL +4.5
-3.3
17%
Win RateDAL +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Rams projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%LAR
DET 39%
LAR 61%

Team Profile

DET
LAR

Key Factors

DETStatLAR
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +15.7
19.7
30.7
PA/G (Def)LAR +15.5
15.2
4.7
Point DiffDET +0.2
4.5
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Cincinnati Bengals. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%DEN
CIN 47%
DEN 53%

Team Profile

CIN
DEN

Key Factors

CINStatDEN
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +1.2
28.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +0.3
23.3
6.2
Point DiffCIN +1.5
4.7
83%
Win RateCIN +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%MIN
CHI 14%
MIN 86%

Team Profile

CHI
MIN

Key Factors

CHIStatMIN
14.8
PPG (Off)MIN +9.2
24.0
25.5
PA/G (Def)MIN +2.2
23.3
-10.7
Point DiffMIN +11.3
0.7
17%
Win RateMIN +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%CLE
CLE 58%
LV 42%

Team Profile

CLE
LV

Key Factors

CLEStatLV
12.0
PPG (Off)LV +5.2
17.2
28.0
PA/G (Def)LV +8.0
20.0
-16.0
Point DiffLV +13.2
-2.8
0%
Win RateLV +33%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Arizona Cardinals. Model assigns a 71% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

71%SEA
ARI 30%
SEA 71%

Team Profile

ARI
SEA

Key Factors

ARIStatSEA
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
21.5
23.8
PA/G (Def)SEA +3.2
20.7
2.2
Point DiffARI +1.3
0.8
33%
Win RateSEA +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%LAC
LAC 56%
LV 45%

Team Profile

LAC
LV

Key Factors

LACStatLV
25.7
PPG (Off)LAC +8.5
17.2
24.2
PA/G (Def)LV +4.2
20.0
1.5
Point DiffLAC +4.3
-2.8
50%
Win RateLAC +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%DAL
NYG 45%
DAL 55%

Team Profile

NYG
DAL

Key Factors

NYGStatDAL
18.3
PPG (Off)DAL +3.2
21.5
27.2
PA/G (Def)DAL +2.3
24.8
-8.8
Point DiffDAL +5.5
-3.3
17%
Win RateDAL +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 2
15 games

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Green Bay Packers. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%PHI
PHI 68%
GB 32%

Team Profile

PHI
GB

Key Factors

PHIStatGB
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +7.8
25.3
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +1.5
20.0
14.7
Point DiffPHI +9.3
5.3
83%
Win RatePHI +50%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 92% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

92%BUF
BAL 8%
BUF 92%

Team Profile

BAL
BUF

Key Factors

BALStatBUF
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +3.5
27.8
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +6.3
20.3
17.3
Point DiffBAL +9.8
7.5
83%
Win RateBAL +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New England Patriots projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%NE
MIA 47%
NE 53%

Team Profile

MIA
NE

Key Factors

MIAStatNE
21.7
PPG (Off)MIA +3.8
17.8
21.3
PA/G (Def)MIA +6.8
28.2
0.3
Point DiffMIA +10.7
-10.3
50%
Win RateMIA +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 69% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

69%HOU
HOU 69%
IND 31%

Team Profile

HOU
IND

Key Factors

HOUStatIND
18.3
PPG (Off)IND +5.2
23.5
19.8
PA/G (Def)HOU +9.7
29.5
-1.5
Point DiffHOU +4.5
-6.0
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%JAX
TEN 42%
JAX 58%

Team Profile

TEN
JAX

Key Factors

TENStatJAX
18.2
PPG (Off)JAX +0.5
18.7
28.3
PA/G (Def)JAX +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffJAX +9.0
-1.2
0%
Win RateJAX +33%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%NO
ATL 35%
NO 66%

Team Profile

ATL
NO

Key Factors

ATLStatNO
24.2
PPG (Off)ATL +11.5
12.7
24.8
PA/G (Def)NO +1.8
23.0
-0.7
Point DiffATL +9.7
-10.3
33%
Win RateATL +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%CAR
CAR 61%
WAS 39%

Team Profile

CAR
WAS

Key Factors

CARStatWAS
24.5
PPG (Off)WAS +5.5
30.0
32.3
PA/G (Def)WAS +2.0
30.3
-7.8
Point DiffWAS +7.5
-0.3
33%
Win RateWAS +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 69% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

69%TB
TB 69%
NYG 31%

Team Profile

TB
NYG

Key Factors

TBStatNYG
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +12.8
18.3
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +8.5
27.2
12.5
Point DiffTB +21.3
-8.8
67%
Win RateTB +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 70% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

70%DAL
DAL 70%
SF 30%

Team Profile

DAL
SF

Key Factors

DALStatSF
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +4.5
29.3
-3.3
Point DiffDAL +4.5
-7.8
50%
Win RateDAL +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Detroit Lions projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%DET
MIN 33%
DET 68%

Team Profile

MIN
DET

Key Factors

MINStatDET
24.0
PPG (Off)DET +11.3
35.3
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +7.3
30.7
0.7
Point DiffDET +4.0
4.7
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%ARI
SEA 40%
ARI 61%

Team Profile

SEA
ARI

Key Factors

SEAStatARI
21.5
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
26.0
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +3.2
23.8
0.8
Point DiffARI +1.3
2.2
67%
Win RateSEA +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Chargers. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%DEN
DEN 56%
LAC 44%

Team Profile

DEN
LAC

Key Factors

DENStatLAC
28.0
PPG (Off)DEN +2.3
25.7
23.3
PA/G (Def)DEN +0.8
24.2
4.7
Point DiffDEN +3.2
1.5
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%CLE
LV 44%
CLE 56%

Team Profile

LV
CLE

Key Factors

LVStatCLE
17.2
PPG (Off)LV +5.2
12.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +8.0
28.0
-2.8
Point DiffLV +13.2
-16.0
33%
Win RateLV +33%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%CIN
KC 17%
CIN 83%

Team Profile

KC
CIN

Key Factors

KCStatCIN
22.0
PPG (Off)CIN +7.2
29.2
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +3.5
23.0
2.5
Point DiffCIN +3.7
6.2
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Jets projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%NYJ
NYJ 86%
PIT 14%

Team Profile

NYJ
PIT

Key Factors

NYJStatPIT
22.3
PPG (Off)NYJ +6.0
16.3
27.0
PA/G (Def)PIT +1.8
25.2
-4.7
Point DiffNYJ +4.2
-8.8
33%
Win RateNYJ +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 3
15 games

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 63% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

63%DAL
DAL 63%
NYG 37%

Team Profile

DAL
NYG

Key Factors

DALStatNYG
21.5
PPG (Off)DAL +3.2
18.3
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +2.3
27.2
-3.3
Point DiffDAL +5.5
-8.8
50%
Win RateDAL +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%BUF
BUF 76%
MIA 24%

Team Profile

BUF
MIA

Key Factors

BUFStatMIA
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +6.2
21.7
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +1.0
21.3
7.5
Point DiffBUF +7.2
0.3
67%
Win RateBUF +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 65% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

65%HOU
KC 35%
HOU 65%

Team Profile

KC
HOU

Key Factors

KCStatHOU
22.0
PPG (Off)KC +3.7
18.3
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +0.3
19.8
2.5
Point DiffKC +4.0
-1.5
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 71% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

71%CLE
PIT 29%
CLE 71%

Team Profile

PIT
CLE

Key Factors

PITStatCLE
16.3
PPG (Off)PIT +4.3
12.0
25.2
PA/G (Def)PIT +2.8
28.0
-8.8
Point DiffPIT +7.2
-16.0
17%
Win RatePIT +17%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 74% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

74%IND
IND 74%
TEN 26%

Team Profile

IND
TEN

Key Factors

INDStatTEN
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +5.3
18.2
29.5
PA/G (Def)TEN +1.2
28.3
-6.0
Point DiffIND +4.2
-10.2
50%
Win RateIND +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Jets projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%NYJ
NE 47%
NYJ 53%

Team Profile

NE
NYJ

Key Factors

NEStatNYJ
17.8
PPG (Off)NYJ +4.5
22.3
28.2
PA/G (Def)NYJ +1.2
27.0
-10.3
Point DiffNYJ +5.7
-4.7
17%
Win RateNYJ +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%GB
GB 59%
MIN 41%

Team Profile

GB
MIN

Key Factors

GBStatMIN
25.3
PPG (Off)GB +1.3
24.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +3.3
23.3
5.3
Point DiffGB +4.7
0.7
33%
Win RateMIN +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 92% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

92%ATL
ATL 92%
CAR 8%

Team Profile

ATL
CAR

Key Factors

ATLStatCAR
24.2
PPG (Off)CAR +0.3
24.5
24.8
PA/G (Def)ATL +7.5
32.3
-0.7
Point DiffATL +7.2
-7.8
33%
Win Rate
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%NO
WAS 38%
NO 62%

Team Profile

WAS
NO

Key Factors

WASStatNO
30.0
PPG (Off)WAS +17.3
12.7
30.3
PA/G (Def)NO +7.3
23.0
-0.3
Point DiffWAS +10.0
-10.3
83%
Win RateWAS +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

San Francisco 49ers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%SF
SF 66%
LAR 34%

Team Profile

SF
LAR

Key Factors

SFStatLAR
21.5
PPG (Off)SF +1.8
19.7
29.3
PA/G (Def)LAR +14.2
15.2
-7.8
Point DiffLAR +12.3
4.5
17%
Win RateLAR +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%DEN
SEA 25%
DEN 76%

Team Profile

SEA
DEN

Key Factors

SEAStatDEN
21.5
PPG (Off)DEN +6.5
28.0
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +2.7
23.3
0.8
Point DiffDEN +3.8
4.7
67%
Win RateSEA +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%LAC
LV 34%
LAC 66%

Team Profile

LV
LAC

Key Factors

LVStatLAC
17.2
PPG (Off)LAC +8.5
25.7
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +4.2
24.2
-2.8
Point DiffLAC +4.3
1.5
33%
Win RateLAC +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Chicago Bears projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Arizona Cardinals. Model assigns a 65% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

65%CHI
ARI 35%
CHI 65%

Team Profile

ARI
CHI

Key Factors

ARIStatCHI
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +11.2
14.8
23.8
PA/G (Def)ARI +1.7
25.5
2.2
Point DiffARI +12.8
-10.7
33%
Win RateARI +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Philadelphia Eagles. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%TB
PHI 40%
TB 60%

Team Profile

PHI
TB

Key Factors

PHIStatTB
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +2.0
31.2
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +0.2
18.7
14.7
Point DiffPHI +2.2
12.5
83%
Win RatePHI +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 92% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

92%CIN
DET 8%
CIN 92%

Team Profile

DET
CIN

Key Factors

DETStatCIN
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +6.2
29.2
30.7
PA/G (Def)CIN +7.7
23.0
4.7
Point DiffCIN +1.5
6.2
67%
Win RateCIN +16%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 4
14 games

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%GB
GB 66%
CHI 34%

Team Profile

GB
CHI

Key Factors

GBStatCHI
25.3
PPG (Off)GB +10.5
14.8
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +5.5
25.5
5.3
Point DiffGB +16.0
-10.7
33%
Win RateGB +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 72% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

72%BAL
BAL 72%
PIT 28%

Team Profile

BAL
PIT

Key Factors

BALStatPIT
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +15.0
16.3
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +11.2
25.2
17.3
Point DiffBAL +26.2
-8.8
83%
Win RateBAL +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Houston Texans. Model assigns a 67% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

67%JAX
HOU 33%
JAX 67%

Team Profile

HOU
JAX

Key Factors

HOUStatJAX
18.3
PPG (Off)JAX +0.3
18.7
19.8
PA/G (Def)
19.8
-1.5
Point DiffJAX +0.3
-1.2
50%
Win RateHOU +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%IND
CLE 14%
IND 86%

Team Profile

CLE
IND

Key Factors

CLEStatIND
12.0
PPG (Off)IND +11.5
23.5
28.0
PA/G (Def)CLE +1.5
29.5
-16.0
Point DiffIND +10.0
-6.0
0%
Win RateIND +50%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 54% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

54%MIA
MIA 54%
TEN 47%

Team Profile

MIA
TEN

Key Factors

MIAStatTEN
21.7
PPG (Off)MIA +3.5
18.2
21.3
PA/G (Def)MIA +7.0
28.3
0.3
Point DiffMIA +10.5
-10.2
50%
Win RateMIA +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 94% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

94%ATL
NO 6%
ATL 94%

Team Profile

NO
ATL

Key Factors

NOStatATL
12.7
PPG (Off)ATL +11.5
24.2
23.0
PA/G (Def)NO +1.8
24.8
-10.3
Point DiffATL +9.7
-0.7
17%
Win RateATL +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 89% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

89%WAS
NYG 11%
WAS 89%

Team Profile

NYG
WAS

Key Factors

NYGStatWAS
18.3
PPG (Off)WAS +11.7
30.0
27.2
PA/G (Def)NYG +3.2
30.3
-8.8
Point DiffWAS +8.5
-0.3
17%
Win RateWAS +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%TB
CAR 23%
TB 77%

Team Profile

CAR
TB

Key Factors

CARStatTB
24.5
PPG (Off)TB +6.7
31.2
32.3
PA/G (Def)TB +13.7
18.7
-7.8
Point DiffTB +20.3
12.5
33%
Win RateTB +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%LAC
KC 44%
LAC 56%

Team Profile

KC
LAC

Key Factors

KCStatLAC
22.0
PPG (Off)LAC +3.7
25.7
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +4.7
24.2
2.5
Point DiffKC +1.0
1.5
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 54% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

54%DEN
DEN 54%
LV 46%

Team Profile

DEN
LV

Key Factors

DENStatLV
28.0
PPG (Off)DEN +10.8
17.2
23.3
PA/G (Def)LV +3.3
20.0
4.7
Point DiffDEN +7.5
-2.8
50%
Win RateDEN +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%MIN
MIN 53%
SF 48%

Team Profile

MIN
SF

Key Factors

MINStatSF
24.0
PPG (Off)MIN +2.5
21.5
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +6.0
29.3
0.7
Point DiffMIN +8.5
-7.8
67%
Win RateMIN +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%SEA
LAR 18%
SEA 82%

Team Profile

LAR
SEA

Key Factors

LARStatSEA
19.7
PPG (Off)SEA +1.8
21.5
15.2
PA/G (Def)LAR +5.5
20.7
4.5
Point DiffLAR +3.7
0.8
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%BUF
BUF 58%
KC 42%

Team Profile

BUF
KC

Key Factors

BUFStatKC
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +5.8
22.0
20.3
PA/G (Def)KC +0.8
19.5
7.5
Point DiffBUF +5.0
2.5
67%
Win RateKC +16%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 80% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

80%PHI
PHI 80%
DAL 20%

Team Profile

PHI
DAL

Key Factors

PHIStatDAL
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
21.5
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
24.8
14.7
Point DiffPHI +18.0
-3.3
83%
Win RatePHI +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 5
13 games

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 91% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

91%BUF
BAL 9%
BUF 91%

Team Profile

BAL
BUF

Key Factors

BALStatBUF
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +3.5
27.8
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +6.3
20.3
17.3
Point DiffBAL +9.8
7.5
83%
Win RateBAL +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 72% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

72%IND
TEN 28%
IND 72%

Team Profile

TEN
IND

Key Factors

TENStatIND
18.2
PPG (Off)IND +5.3
23.5
28.3
PA/G (Def)TEN +1.2
29.5
-10.2
Point DiffIND +4.2
-6.0
0%
Win RateIND +50%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to better recent win rate over Jacksonville Jaguars. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%HOU
JAX 38%
HOU 62%

Team Profile

JAX
HOU

Key Factors

JAXStatHOU
18.7
PPG (Off)JAX +0.3
18.3
19.8
PA/G (Def)
19.8
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +0.3
-1.5
33%
Win RateHOU +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Jets projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 69% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

69%NYJ
NYJ 69%
MIA 31%

Team Profile

NYJ
MIA

Key Factors

NYJStatMIA
22.3
PPG (Off)NYJ +0.7
21.7
27.0
PA/G (Def)MIA +5.7
21.3
-4.7
Point DiffMIA +5.0
0.3
33%
Win RateMIA +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New England Patriots projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 80% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

80%NE
PIT 20%
NE 80%

Team Profile

PIT
NE

Key Factors

PITStatNE
16.3
PPG (Off)NE +1.5
17.8
25.2
PA/G (Def)PIT +3.0
28.2
-8.8
Point DiffPIT +1.5
-10.3
17%
Win Rate
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%TB
TB 68%
NO 32%

Team Profile

TB
NO

Key Factors

TBStatNO
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +18.5
12.7
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +4.3
23.0
12.5
Point DiffTB +22.8
-10.3
67%
Win RateTB +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Giants projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%NYG
WAS 36%
NYG 64%

Team Profile

WAS
NYG

Key Factors

WASStatNYG
30.0
PPG (Off)WAS +11.7
18.3
30.3
PA/G (Def)NYG +3.2
27.2
-0.3
Point DiffWAS +8.5
-8.8
83%
Win RateWAS +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 70% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

70%DAL
DAL 70%
SF 31%

Team Profile

DAL
SF

Key Factors

DALStatSF
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +4.5
29.3
-3.3
Point DiffDAL +4.5
-7.8
50%
Win RateDAL +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%GB
DET 42%
GB 58%

Team Profile

DET
GB

Key Factors

DETStatGB
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +10.0
25.3
30.7
PA/G (Def)GB +10.7
20.0
4.7
Point DiffGB +0.7
5.3
67%
Win RateDET +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Chargers. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%DEN
LAC 35%
DEN 66%

Team Profile

LAC
DEN

Key Factors

LACStatDEN
25.7
PPG (Off)DEN +2.3
28.0
24.2
PA/G (Def)DEN +0.8
23.3
1.5
Point DiffDEN +3.2
4.7
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Rams projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 51% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

51%LAR
SEA 50%
LAR 51%

Team Profile

SEA
LAR

Key Factors

SEAStatLAR
21.5
PPG (Off)SEA +1.8
19.7
20.7
PA/G (Def)LAR +5.5
15.2
0.8
Point DiffLAR +3.7
4.5
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%MIN
KC 17%
MIN 83%

Team Profile

KC
MIN

Key Factors

KCStatMIN
22.0
PPG (Off)MIN +2.0
24.0
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +3.8
23.3
2.5
Point DiffKC +1.8
0.7
83%
Win RateKC +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 67% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

67%CIN
CIN 67%
BAL 33%

Team Profile

CIN
BAL

Key Factors

CINStatBAL
29.2
PPG (Off)BAL +2.2
31.3
23.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +9.0
14.0
6.2
Point DiffBAL +11.2
17.3
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 6
13 games

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%KC
KC 61%
SF 39%

Team Profile

KC
SF

Key Factors

KCStatSF
22.0
PPG (Off)KC +0.5
21.5
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +9.8
29.3
2.5
Point DiffKC +10.3
-7.8
83%
Win RateKC +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%BUF
BUF 59%
NE 41%

Team Profile

BUF
NE

Key Factors

BUFStatNE
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +10.0
17.8
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +7.8
28.2
7.5
Point DiffBUF +17.8
-10.3
67%
Win RateBUF +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 57% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

57%HOU
HOU 57%
CLE 43%

Team Profile

HOU
CLE

Key Factors

HOUStatCLE
18.3
PPG (Off)HOU +6.3
12.0
19.8
PA/G (Def)HOU +8.2
28.0
-1.5
Point DiffHOU +14.5
-16.0
50%
Win RateHOU +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 52% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

52%JAX
IND 48%
JAX 52%

Team Profile

IND
JAX

Key Factors

INDStatJAX
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +4.8
18.7
29.5
PA/G (Def)JAX +9.7
19.8
-6.0
Point DiffJAX +4.8
-1.2
50%
Win RateIND +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%MIA
MIA 58%
PIT 42%

Team Profile

MIA
PIT

Key Factors

MIAStatPIT
21.7
PPG (Off)MIA +5.3
16.3
21.3
PA/G (Def)MIA +3.8
25.2
0.3
Point DiffMIA +9.2
-8.8
50%
Win RateMIA +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 51% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

51%CAR
CAR 51%
WAS 49%

Team Profile

CAR
WAS

Key Factors

CARStatWAS
24.5
PPG (Off)WAS +5.5
30.0
32.3
PA/G (Def)WAS +2.0
30.3
-7.8
Point DiffWAS +7.5
-0.3
33%
Win RateWAS +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 85% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

85%ATL
NYG 15%
ATL 85%

Team Profile

NYG
ATL

Key Factors

NYGStatATL
18.3
PPG (Off)ATL +5.8
24.2
27.2
PA/G (Def)ATL +2.3
24.8
-8.8
Point DiffATL +8.2
-0.7
17%
Win RateATL +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 94% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

94%TB
NO 6%
TB 94%

Team Profile

NO
TB

Key Factors

NOStatTB
12.7
PPG (Off)TB +18.5
31.2
23.0
PA/G (Def)TB +4.3
18.7
-10.3
Point DiffTB +22.8
12.5
17%
Win RateTB +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Philadelphia Eagles. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%MIN
PHI 38%
MIN 62%

Team Profile

PHI
MIN

Key Factors

PHIStatMIN
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +9.2
24.0
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +4.8
23.3
14.7
Point DiffPHI +14.0
0.7
83%
Win RatePHI +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Detroit Lions projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 98% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

98%DET
CHI 2%
DET 98%

Team Profile

CHI
DET

Key Factors

CHIStatDET
14.8
PPG (Off)DET +20.5
35.3
25.5
PA/G (Def)CHI +5.2
30.7
-10.7
Point DiffDET +15.3
4.7
17%
Win RateDET +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%ARI
LAR 18%
ARI 82%

Team Profile

LAR
ARI

Key Factors

LARStatARI
19.7
PPG (Off)ARI +6.3
26.0
15.2
PA/G (Def)LAR +8.7
23.8
4.5
Point DiffLAR +2.3
2.2
67%
Win RateLAR +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 87% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

87%DEN
LV 13%
DEN 87%

Team Profile

LV
DEN

Key Factors

LVStatDEN
17.2
PPG (Off)DEN +10.8
28.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +3.3
23.3
-2.8
Point DiffDEN +7.5
4.7
33%
Win RateDEN +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 71% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

71%GB
DAL 29%
GB 71%

Team Profile

DAL
GB

Key Factors

DALStatGB
21.5
PPG (Off)GB +3.8
25.3
24.8
PA/G (Def)GB +4.8
20.0
-3.3
Point DiffGB +8.7
5.3
50%
Win RateDAL +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 7
13 games

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 74% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

74%PHI
PHI 74%
NYG 26%

Team Profile

PHI
NYG

Key Factors

PHIStatNYG
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +14.8
18.3
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +8.7
27.2
14.7
Point DiffPHI +23.5
-8.8
83%
Win RatePHI +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%CLE
BAL 44%
CLE 56%

Team Profile

BAL
CLE

Key Factors

BALStatCLE
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +19.3
12.0
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +14.0
28.0
17.3
Point DiffBAL +33.3
-16.0
83%
Win RateBAL +83%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%HOU
TEN 23%
HOU 77%

Team Profile

TEN
HOU

Key Factors

TENStatHOU
18.2
PPG (Off)HOU +0.2
18.3
28.3
PA/G (Def)HOU +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffHOU +8.7
-1.5
0%
Win RateHOU +50%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 88% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

88%BUF
NE 12%
BUF 88%

Team Profile

NE
BUF

Key Factors

NEStatBUF
17.8
PPG (Off)BUF +10.0
27.8
28.2
PA/G (Def)BUF +7.8
20.3
-10.3
Point DiffBUF +17.8
7.5
17%
Win RateBUF +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Jets projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 73% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

73%NYJ
NYJ 73%
IND 27%

Team Profile

NYJ
IND

Key Factors

NYJStatIND
22.3
PPG (Off)IND +1.2
23.5
27.0
PA/G (Def)NYJ +2.5
29.5
-4.7
Point DiffNYJ +1.3
-6.0
33%
Win RateIND +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 90% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

90%ATL
ATL 90%
CAR 10%

Team Profile

ATL
CAR

Key Factors

ATLStatCAR
24.2
PPG (Off)CAR +0.3
24.5
24.8
PA/G (Def)ATL +7.5
32.3
-0.7
Point DiffATL +7.2
-7.8
33%
Win Rate
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%TB
WAS 17%
TB 83%

Team Profile

WAS
TB

Key Factors

WASStatTB
30.0
PPG (Off)TB +1.2
31.2
30.3
PA/G (Def)TB +11.7
18.7
-0.3
Point DiffTB +12.8
12.5
83%
Win RateWAS +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Rams projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%LAR
KC 47%
LAR 53%

Team Profile

KC
LAR

Key Factors

KCStatLAR
22.0
PPG (Off)KC +2.3
19.7
19.5
PA/G (Def)LAR +4.3
15.2
2.5
Point DiffLAR +2.0
4.5
83%
Win RateKC +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 88% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

88%GB
GB 88%
DET 12%

Team Profile

GB
DET

Key Factors

GBStatDET
25.3
PPG (Off)DET +10.0
35.3
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +10.7
30.7
5.3
Point DiffGB +0.7
4.7
33%
Win RateDET +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Denver Broncos. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%SEA
DEN 39%
SEA 61%

Team Profile

DEN
SEA

Key Factors

DENStatSEA
28.0
PPG (Off)DEN +6.5
21.5
23.3
PA/G (Def)SEA +2.7
20.7
4.7
Point DiffDEN +3.8
0.8
50%
Win RateSEA +17%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%LAC
LAC 62%
LV 38%

Team Profile

LAC
LV

Key Factors

LACStatLV
25.7
PPG (Off)LAC +8.5
17.2
24.2
PA/G (Def)LV +4.2
20.0
1.5
Point DiffLAC +4.3
-2.8
50%
Win RateLAC +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

San Francisco 49ers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%SF
SF 61%
DAL 39%

Team Profile

SF
DAL

Key Factors

SFStatDAL
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
29.3
PA/G (Def)DAL +4.5
24.8
-7.8
Point DiffDAL +4.5
-3.3
17%
Win RateDAL +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 52% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

52%CIN
CIN 52%
PIT 49%

Team Profile

CIN
PIT

Key Factors

CINStatPIT
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +12.8
16.3
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +2.2
25.2
6.2
Point DiffCIN +15.0
-8.8
83%
Win RateCIN +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 8
13 games

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%GB
MIN 39%
GB 61%

Team Profile

MIN
GB

Key Factors

MINStatGB
24.0
PPG (Off)GB +1.3
25.3
23.3
PA/G (Def)GB +3.3
20.0
0.7
Point DiffGB +4.7
5.3
67%
Win RateMIN +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Jets. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%BUF
BUF 83%
NYJ 17%

Team Profile

BUF
NYJ

Key Factors

BUFStatNYJ
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +5.5
22.3
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +6.7
27.0
7.5
Point DiffBUF +12.2
-4.7
67%
Win RateBUF +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 95% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

95%BAL
PIT 5%
BAL 95%

Team Profile

PIT
BAL

Key Factors

PITStatBAL
16.3
PPG (Off)BAL +15.0
31.3
25.2
PA/G (Def)BAL +11.2
14.0
-8.8
Point DiffBAL +26.2
17.3
17%
Win RateBAL +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%JAX
JAX 66%
IND 34%

Team Profile

JAX
IND

Key Factors

JAXStatIND
18.7
PPG (Off)IND +4.8
23.5
19.8
PA/G (Def)JAX +9.7
29.5
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +4.8
-6.0
33%
Win RateIND +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tennessee Titans projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 74% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

74%TEN
CLE 27%
TEN 74%

Team Profile

CLE
TEN

Key Factors

CLEStatTEN
12.0
PPG (Off)TEN +6.2
18.2
28.0
PA/G (Def)CLE +0.3
28.3
-16.0
Point DiffTEN +5.8
-10.2
0%
Win Rate
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 84% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

84%TB
ATL 16%
TB 84%

Team Profile

ATL
TB

Key Factors

ATLStatTB
24.2
PPG (Off)TB +7.0
31.2
24.8
PA/G (Def)TB +6.2
18.7
-0.7
Point DiffTB +13.2
12.5
33%
Win RateTB +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%CAR
NO 17%
CAR 83%

Team Profile

NO
CAR

Key Factors

NOStatCAR
12.7
PPG (Off)CAR +11.8
24.5
23.0
PA/G (Def)NO +9.3
32.3
-10.3
Point DiffCAR +2.5
-7.8
17%
Win RateCAR +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 93% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

93%PHI
NYG 7%
PHI 93%

Team Profile

NYG
PHI

Key Factors

NYGStatPHI
18.3
PPG (Off)PHI +14.8
33.2
27.2
PA/G (Def)PHI +8.7
18.5
-8.8
Point DiffPHI +23.5
14.7
17%
Win RatePHI +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%SEA
SF 45%
SEA 55%

Team Profile

SF
SEA

Key Factors

SFStatSEA
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
29.3
PA/G (Def)SEA +8.7
20.7
-7.8
Point DiffSEA +8.7
0.8
17%
Win RateSEA +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%ARI
ARI 55%
LAR 45%

Team Profile

ARI
LAR

Key Factors

ARIStatLAR
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +6.3
19.7
23.8
PA/G (Def)LAR +8.7
15.2
2.2
Point DiffLAR +2.3
4.5
33%
Win RateLAR +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 74% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

74%KC
LV 27%
KC 74%

Team Profile

LV
KC

Key Factors

LVStatKC
17.2
PPG (Off)KC +4.8
22.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)KC +0.5
19.5
-2.8
Point DiffKC +5.3
2.5
33%
Win RateKC +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Chargers. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%DEN
DEN 59%
LAC 42%

Team Profile

DEN
LAC

Key Factors

DENStatLAC
28.0
PPG (Off)DEN +2.3
25.7
23.3
PA/G (Def)DEN +0.8
24.2
4.7
Point DiffDEN +3.2
1.5
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 52% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

52%WAS
DAL 48%
WAS 52%

Team Profile

DAL
WAS

Key Factors

DALStatWAS
21.5
PPG (Off)WAS +8.5
30.0
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +5.5
30.3
-3.3
Point DiffWAS +3.0
-0.3
50%
Win RateWAS +33%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 9
14 games

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%BUF
KC 18%
BUF 82%

Team Profile

KC
BUF

Key Factors

KCStatBUF
22.0
PPG (Off)BUF +5.8
27.8
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +0.8
20.3
2.5
Point DiffBUF +5.0
7.5
83%
Win RateKC +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over New York Jets. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%MIA
MIA 55%
NYJ 45%

Team Profile

MIA
NYJ

Key Factors

MIAStatNYJ
21.7
PPG (Off)NYJ +0.7
22.3
21.3
PA/G (Def)MIA +5.7
27.0
0.3
Point DiffMIA +5.0
-4.7
50%
Win RateMIA +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New England Patriots projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%NE
NE 60%
PIT 40%

Team Profile

NE
PIT

Key Factors

NEStatPIT
17.8
PPG (Off)NE +1.5
16.3
28.2
PA/G (Def)PIT +3.0
25.2
-10.3
Point DiffPIT +1.5
-8.8
17%
Win Rate
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 57% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

57%HOU
HOU 57%
TEN 43%

Team Profile

HOU
TEN

Key Factors

HOUStatTEN
18.3
PPG (Off)HOU +0.2
18.2
19.8
PA/G (Def)HOU +8.5
28.3
-1.5
Point DiffHOU +8.7
-10.2
50%
Win RateHOU +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%CLE
IND 45%
CLE 55%

Team Profile

IND
CLE

Key Factors

INDStatCLE
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +11.5
12.0
29.5
PA/G (Def)CLE +1.5
28.0
-6.0
Point DiffIND +10.0
-16.0
50%
Win RateIND +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 85% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

85%TB
TB 85%
ATL 15%

Team Profile

TB
ATL

Key Factors

TBStatATL
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +7.0
24.2
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +6.2
24.8
12.5
Point DiffTB +13.2
-0.7
67%
Win RateTB +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 96% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

96%WAS
NO 4%
WAS 96%

Team Profile

NO
WAS

Key Factors

NOStatWAS
12.7
PPG (Off)WAS +17.3
30.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)NO +7.3
30.3
-10.3
Point DiffWAS +10.0
-0.3
17%
Win RateWAS +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 75% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

75%CAR
CAR 75%
NYG 25%

Team Profile

CAR
NYG

Key Factors

CARStatNYG
24.5
PPG (Off)CAR +6.2
18.3
32.3
PA/G (Def)NYG +5.2
27.2
-7.8
Point DiffCAR +1.0
-8.8
33%
Win RateCAR +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 88% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

88%MIN
DET 12%
MIN 88%

Team Profile

DET
MIN

Key Factors

DETStatMIN
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +11.3
24.0
30.7
PA/G (Def)MIN +7.3
23.3
4.7
Point DiffDET +4.0
0.7
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 91% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

91%GB
CHI 9%
GB 91%

Team Profile

CHI
GB

Key Factors

CHIStatGB
14.8
PPG (Off)GB +10.5
25.3
25.5
PA/G (Def)GB +5.5
20.0
-10.7
Point DiffGB +16.0
5.3
17%
Win RateGB +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Los Angeles Chargers. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%KC
LAC 39%
KC 61%

Team Profile

LAC
KC

Key Factors

LACStatKC
25.7
PPG (Off)LAC +3.7
22.0
24.2
PA/G (Def)KC +4.7
19.5
1.5
Point DiffKC +1.0
2.5
50%
Win RateKC +33%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 63% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

63%SEA
SEA 63%
SF 37%

Team Profile

SEA
SF

Key Factors

SEAStatSF
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +8.7
29.3
0.8
Point DiffSEA +8.7
-7.8
67%
Win RateSEA +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%PHI
PHI 78%
DAL 22%

Team Profile

PHI
DAL

Key Factors

PHIStatDAL
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
21.5
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
24.8
14.7
Point DiffPHI +18.0
-3.3
83%
Win RatePHI +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Cincinnati Bengals. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%CLE
CIN 36%
CLE 64%

Team Profile

CIN
CLE

Key Factors

CINStatCLE
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +17.2
12.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +5.0
28.0
6.2
Point DiffCIN +22.2
-16.0
83%
Win RateCIN +83%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 10
14 games

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%GB
SF 41%
GB 59%

Team Profile

SF
GB

Key Factors

SFStatGB
21.5
PPG (Off)GB +3.8
25.3
29.3
PA/G (Def)GB +9.3
20.0
-7.8
Point DiffGB +13.2
5.3
17%
Win RateGB +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 54% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

54%MIA
BAL 46%
MIA 54%

Team Profile

BAL
MIA

Key Factors

BALStatMIA
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +9.7
21.7
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +7.3
21.3
17.3
Point DiffBAL +17.0
0.3
83%
Win RateBAL +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%BUF
BUF 82%
IND 18%

Team Profile

BUF
IND

Key Factors

BUFStatIND
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +4.3
23.5
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +9.2
29.5
7.5
Point DiffBUF +13.5
-6.0
67%
Win RateBUF +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to better recent win rate over Jacksonville Jaguars. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%HOU
JAX 34%
HOU 66%

Team Profile

JAX
HOU

Key Factors

JAXStatHOU
18.7
PPG (Off)JAX +0.3
18.3
19.8
PA/G (Def)
19.8
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +0.3
-1.5
33%
Win RateHOU +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tennessee Titans projected to win thanks to positive point differential over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%TEN
TEN 64%
NE 36%

Team Profile

TEN
NE

Key Factors

TENStatNE
18.2
PPG (Off)TEN +0.3
17.8
28.3
PA/G (Def)NE +0.2
28.2
-10.2
Point DiffTEN +0.2
-10.3
0%
Win RateNE +17%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%ATL
ATL 61%
WAS 39%

Team Profile

ATL
WAS

Key Factors

ATLStatWAS
24.2
PPG (Off)WAS +5.8
30.0
24.8
PA/G (Def)ATL +5.5
30.3
-0.7
Point DiffWAS +0.3
-0.3
33%
Win RateWAS +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%NO
CAR 44%
NO 56%

Team Profile

CAR
NO

Key Factors

CARStatNO
24.5
PPG (Off)CAR +11.8
12.7
32.3
PA/G (Def)NO +9.3
23.0
-7.8
Point DiffCAR +2.5
-10.3
33%
Win RateCAR +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 69% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

69%TB
TB 69%
NYG 31%

Team Profile

TB
NYG

Key Factors

TBStatNYG
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +12.8
18.3
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +8.5
27.2
12.5
Point DiffTB +21.3
-8.8
67%
Win RateTB +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%PHI
DAL 15%
PHI 86%

Team Profile

DAL
PHI

Key Factors

DALStatPHI
21.5
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
33.2
24.8
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
18.5
-3.3
Point DiffPHI +18.0
14.7
50%
Win RatePHI +33%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Chicago Bears projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 67% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

67%CHI
MIN 33%
CHI 67%

Team Profile

MIN
CHI

Key Factors

MINStatCHI
24.0
PPG (Off)MIN +9.2
14.8
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +2.2
25.5
0.7
Point DiffMIN +11.3
-10.7
67%
Win RateMIN +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 66% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

66%DEN
KC 34%
DEN 66%

Team Profile

KC
DEN

Key Factors

KCStatDEN
22.0
PPG (Off)DEN +6.0
28.0
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +3.8
23.3
2.5
Point DiffDEN +2.2
4.7
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%LAC
LAR 14%
LAC 86%

Team Profile

LAR
LAC

Key Factors

LARStatLAC
19.7
PPG (Off)LAC +6.0
25.7
15.2
PA/G (Def)LAR +9.0
24.2
4.5
Point DiffLAR +3.0
1.5
67%
Win RateLAR +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Arizona Cardinals. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%SEA
ARI 32%
SEA 68%

Team Profile

ARI
SEA

Key Factors

ARIStatSEA
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
21.5
23.8
PA/G (Def)SEA +3.2
20.7
2.2
Point DiffARI +1.3
0.8
33%
Win RateSEA +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 95% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

95%BAL
PIT 5%
BAL 95%

Team Profile

PIT
BAL

Key Factors

PITStatBAL
16.3
PPG (Off)BAL +15.0
31.3
25.2
PA/G (Def)BAL +11.2
14.0
-8.8
Point DiffBAL +26.2
17.3
17%
Win RateBAL +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 11
14 games

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%PHI
DAL 14%
PHI 86%

Team Profile

DAL
PHI

Key Factors

DALStatPHI
21.5
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
33.2
24.8
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
18.5
-3.3
Point DiffPHI +18.0
14.7
50%
Win RatePHI +33%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

81%BUF
MIA 19%
BUF 81%

Team Profile

MIA
BUF

Key Factors

MIAStatBUF
21.7
PPG (Off)BUF +6.2
27.8
21.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +1.0
20.3
0.3
Point DiffBUF +7.2
7.5
50%
Win RateBUF +17%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%HOU
IND 36%
HOU 64%

Team Profile

IND
HOU

Key Factors

INDStatHOU
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +5.2
18.3
29.5
PA/G (Def)HOU +9.7
19.8
-6.0
Point DiffHOU +4.5
-1.5
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%PIT
CLE 17%
PIT 83%

Team Profile

CLE
PIT

Key Factors

CLEStatPIT
12.0
PPG (Off)PIT +4.3
16.3
28.0
PA/G (Def)PIT +2.8
25.2
-16.0
Point DiffPIT +7.2
-8.8
0%
Win RatePIT +17%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 71% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

71%JAX
JAX 71%
TEN 29%

Team Profile

JAX
TEN

Key Factors

JAXStatTEN
18.7
PPG (Off)JAX +0.5
18.2
19.8
PA/G (Def)JAX +8.5
28.3
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +9.0
-10.2
33%
Win RateJAX +33%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%WAS
WAS 60%
ATL 40%

Team Profile

WAS
ATL

Key Factors

WASStatATL
30.0
PPG (Off)WAS +5.8
24.2
30.3
PA/G (Def)ATL +5.5
24.8
-0.3
Point DiffWAS +0.3
-0.7
83%
Win RateWAS +50%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Carolina Panthers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%CAR
NYG 41%
CAR 59%

Team Profile

NYG
CAR

Key Factors

NYGStatCAR
18.3
PPG (Off)CAR +6.2
24.5
27.2
PA/G (Def)NYG +5.2
32.3
-8.8
Point DiffCAR +1.0
-7.8
17%
Win RateCAR +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 94% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

94%TB
NO 6%
TB 94%

Team Profile

NO
TB

Key Factors

NOStatTB
12.7
PPG (Off)TB +18.5
31.2
23.0
PA/G (Def)TB +4.3
18.7
-10.3
Point DiffTB +22.8
12.5
17%
Win RateTB +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%GB
GB 76%
CHI 24%

Team Profile

GB
CHI

Key Factors

GBStatCHI
25.3
PPG (Off)GB +10.5
14.8
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +5.5
25.5
5.3
Point DiffGB +16.0
-10.7
33%
Win RateGB +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 87% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

87%MIN
DET 14%
MIN 87%

Team Profile

DET
MIN

Key Factors

DETStatMIN
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +11.3
24.0
30.7
PA/G (Def)MIN +7.3
23.3
4.7
Point DiffDET +4.0
0.7
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 75% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

75%LAC
LV 25%
LAC 75%

Team Profile

LV
LAC

Key Factors

LVStatLAC
17.2
PPG (Off)LAC +8.5
25.7
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +4.2
24.2
-2.8
Point DiffLAC +4.3
1.5
33%
Win RateLAC +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 63% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

63%ARI
SEA 37%
ARI 63%

Team Profile

SEA
ARI

Key Factors

SEAStatARI
21.5
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
26.0
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +3.2
23.8
0.8
Point DiffARI +1.3
2.2
67%
Win RateSEA +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 85% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

85%CIN
KC 15%
CIN 85%

Team Profile

KC
CIN

Key Factors

KCStatCIN
22.0
PPG (Off)CIN +7.2
29.2
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +3.5
23.0
2.5
Point DiffCIN +3.7
6.2
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

San Francisco 49ers projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%SF
SF 59%
LAR 41%

Team Profile

SF
LAR

Key Factors

SFStatLAR
21.5
PPG (Off)SF +1.8
19.7
29.3
PA/G (Def)LAR +14.2
15.2
-7.8
Point DiffLAR +12.3
4.5
17%
Win RateLAR +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 12
7 games

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 52% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

52%DAL
KC 48%
DAL 52%

Team Profile

KC
DAL

Key Factors

KCStatDAL
22.0
PPG (Off)KC +0.5
21.5
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +5.3
24.8
2.5
Point DiffKC +5.8
-3.3
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Detroit Lions projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 95% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

95%DET
NYG 5%
DET 95%

Team Profile

NYG
DET

Key Factors

NYGStatDET
18.3
PPG (Off)DET +17.0
35.3
27.2
PA/G (Def)NYG +3.5
30.7
-8.8
Point DiffDET +13.5
4.7
17%
Win RateDET +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%GB
GB 68%
MIA 32%

Team Profile

GB
MIA

Key Factors

GBStatMIA
25.3
PPG (Off)GB +3.7
21.7
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +1.3
21.3
5.3
Point DiffGB +5.0
0.3
33%
Win RateMIA +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%PHI
PHI 76%
BAL 24%

Team Profile

PHI
BAL

Key Factors

PHIStatBAL
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +1.8
31.3
18.5
PA/G (Def)BAL +4.5
14.0
14.7
Point DiffBAL +2.7
17.3
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%BUF
BUF 82%
PIT 18%

Team Profile

BUF
PIT

Key Factors

BUFStatPIT
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +11.5
16.3
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +4.8
25.2
7.5
Point DiffBUF +16.3
-8.8
67%
Win RateBUF +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%SEA
SF 47%
SEA 53%

Team Profile

SF
SEA

Key Factors

SFStatSEA
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
29.3
PA/G (Def)SEA +8.7
20.7
-7.8
Point DiffSEA +8.7
0.8
17%
Win RateSEA +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Cincinnati Bengals. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%MIN
CIN 42%
MIN 58%

Team Profile

CIN
MIN

Key Factors

CINStatMIN
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +5.2
24.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +0.3
23.3
6.2
Point DiffCIN +5.5
0.7
83%
Win RateCIN +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 13
13 games

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%KC
BAL 18%
KC 82%

Team Profile

BAL
KC

Key Factors

BALStatKC
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +9.3
22.0
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +5.5
19.5
17.3
Point DiffBAL +14.8
2.5
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Miami Dolphins projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over New York Jets. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%MIA
MIA 55%
NYJ 45%

Team Profile

MIA
NYJ

Key Factors

MIAStatNYJ
21.7
PPG (Off)NYJ +0.7
22.3
21.3
PA/G (Def)MIA +5.7
27.0
0.3
Point DiffMIA +5.0
-4.7
50%
Win RateMIA +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%IND
IND 76%
TEN 24%

Team Profile

IND
TEN

Key Factors

INDStatTEN
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +5.3
18.2
29.5
PA/G (Def)TEN +1.2
28.3
-6.0
Point DiffIND +4.2
-10.2
50%
Win RateIND +50%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New England Patriots projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

81%NE
NE 81%
CLE 19%

Team Profile

NE
CLE

Key Factors

NEStatCLE
17.8
PPG (Off)NE +5.8
12.0
28.2
PA/G (Def)CLE +0.2
28.0
-10.3
Point DiffNE +5.7
-16.0
17%
Win RateNE +17%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Houston Texans. Model assigns a 72% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

72%JAX
HOU 28%
JAX 72%

Team Profile

HOU
JAX

Key Factors

HOUStatJAX
18.3
PPG (Off)JAX +0.3
18.7
19.8
PA/G (Def)
19.8
-1.5
Point DiffJAX +0.3
-1.2
50%
Win RateHOU +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%TB
TB 78%
WAS 22%

Team Profile

TB
WAS

Key Factors

TBStatWAS
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +1.2
30.0
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +11.7
30.3
12.5
Point DiffTB +12.8
-0.3
67%
Win RateWAS +16%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%NO
ATL 47%
NO 53%

Team Profile

ATL
NO

Key Factors

ATLStatNO
24.2
PPG (Off)ATL +11.5
12.7
24.8
PA/G (Def)NO +1.8
23.0
-0.7
Point DiffATL +9.7
-10.3
33%
Win RateATL +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 80% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

80%PHI
CAR 20%
PHI 80%

Team Profile

CAR
PHI

Key Factors

CARStatPHI
24.5
PPG (Off)PHI +8.7
33.2
32.3
PA/G (Def)PHI +13.8
18.5
-7.8
Point DiffPHI +22.5
14.7
33%
Win RatePHI +50%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%DAL
DAL 64%
NYG 36%

Team Profile

DAL
NYG

Key Factors

DALStatNYG
21.5
PPG (Off)DAL +3.2
18.3
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +2.3
27.2
-3.3
Point DiffDAL +5.5
-8.8
50%
Win RateDAL +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 93% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

93%MIN
CHI 7%
MIN 93%

Team Profile

CHI
MIN

Key Factors

CHIStatMIN
14.8
PPG (Off)MIN +9.2
24.0
25.5
PA/G (Def)MIN +2.2
23.3
-10.7
Point DiffMIN +11.3
0.7
17%
Win RateMIN +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Chargers. Model assigns a 63% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

63%DEN
LAC 37%
DEN 63%

Team Profile

LAC
DEN

Key Factors

LACStatDEN
25.7
PPG (Off)DEN +2.3
28.0
24.2
PA/G (Def)DEN +0.8
23.3
1.5
Point DiffDEN +3.2
4.7
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%ARI
ARI 68%
SF 32%

Team Profile

ARI
SF

Key Factors

ARIStatSF
26.0
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
21.5
23.8
PA/G (Def)ARI +5.5
29.3
2.2
Point DiffARI +10.0
-7.8
33%
Win RateARI +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 57% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

57%GB
DET 44%
GB 57%

Team Profile

DET
GB

Key Factors

DETStatGB
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +10.0
25.3
30.7
PA/G (Def)GB +10.7
20.0
4.7
Point DiffGB +0.7
5.3
67%
Win RateDET +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 14
13 games

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 84% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

84%BUF
KC 16%
BUF 84%

Team Profile

KC
BUF

Key Factors

KCStatBUF
22.0
PPG (Off)BUF +5.8
27.8
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +0.8
20.3
2.5
Point DiffBUF +5.0
7.5
83%
Win RateKC +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 68% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

68%CIN
CIN 68%
BAL 32%

Team Profile

CIN
BAL

Key Factors

CINStatBAL
29.2
PPG (Off)BAL +2.2
31.3
23.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +9.0
14.0
6.2
Point DiffBAL +11.2
17.3
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New York Jets projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 62% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

62%NYJ
NYJ 62%
MIA 38%

Team Profile

NYJ
MIA

Key Factors

NYJStatMIA
22.3
PPG (Off)NYJ +0.7
21.7
27.0
PA/G (Def)MIA +5.7
21.3
-4.7
Point DiffMIA +5.0
0.3
33%
Win RateMIA +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 92% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

92%IND
PIT 8%
IND 92%

Team Profile

PIT
IND

Key Factors

PITStatIND
16.3
PPG (Off)IND +7.2
23.5
25.2
PA/G (Def)PIT +4.3
29.5
-8.8
Point DiffIND +2.8
-6.0
17%
Win RateIND +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%JAX
TEN 23%
JAX 77%

Team Profile

TEN
JAX

Key Factors

TENStatJAX
18.2
PPG (Off)JAX +0.5
18.7
28.3
PA/G (Def)JAX +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffJAX +9.0
-1.2
0%
Win RateJAX +33%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 50% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

50%NO
WAS 50%
NO 50%

Team Profile

WAS
NO

Key Factors

WASStatNO
30.0
PPG (Off)WAS +17.3
12.7
30.3
PA/G (Def)NO +7.3
23.0
-0.3
Point DiffWAS +10.0
-10.3
83%
Win RateWAS +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 87% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

87%TB
NYG 13%
TB 87%

Team Profile

NYG
TB

Key Factors

NYGStatTB
18.3
PPG (Off)TB +12.8
31.2
27.2
PA/G (Def)TB +8.5
18.7
-8.8
Point DiffTB +21.3
12.5
17%
Win RateTB +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Green Bay Packers. Model assigns a 69% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

69%PHI
PHI 69%
GB 31%

Team Profile

PHI
GB

Key Factors

PHIStatGB
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +7.8
25.3
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +1.5
20.0
14.7
Point DiffPHI +9.3
5.3
83%
Win RatePHI +50%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

64%DAL
MIN 36%
DAL 64%

Team Profile

MIN
DAL

Key Factors

MINStatDAL
24.0
PPG (Off)MIN +2.5
21.5
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +1.5
24.8
0.7
Point DiffMIN +4.0
-3.3
67%
Win RateMIN +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%SEA
LV 22%
SEA 78%

Team Profile

LV
SEA

Key Factors

LVStatSEA
17.2
PPG (Off)SEA +4.3
21.5
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +0.7
20.7
-2.8
Point DiffSEA +3.7
0.8
33%
Win RateSEA +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%ARI
LAR 17%
ARI 83%

Team Profile

LAR
ARI

Key Factors

LARStatARI
19.7
PPG (Off)ARI +6.3
26.0
15.2
PA/G (Def)LAR +8.7
23.8
4.5
Point DiffLAR +2.3
2.2
67%
Win RateLAR +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Denver Broncos. Model assigns a 67% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

67%KC
DEN 33%
KC 67%

Team Profile

DEN
KC

Key Factors

DENStatKC
28.0
PPG (Off)DEN +6.0
22.0
23.3
PA/G (Def)KC +3.8
19.5
4.7
Point DiffDEN +2.2
2.5
50%
Win RateKC +33%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Detroit Lions projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%DET
SF 40%
DET 60%

Team Profile

SF
DET

Key Factors

SFStatDET
21.5
PPG (Off)DET +13.8
35.3
29.3
PA/G (Def)SF +1.3
30.7
-7.8
Point DiffDET +12.5
4.7
17%
Win RateDET +50%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 15
13 games

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%GB
DET 40%
GB 60%

Team Profile

DET
GB

Key Factors

DETStatGB
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +10.0
25.3
30.7
PA/G (Def)GB +10.7
20.0
4.7
Point DiffGB +0.7
5.3
67%
Win RateDET +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

86%BAL
BAL 86%
PIT 14%

Team Profile

BAL
PIT

Key Factors

BALStatPIT
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +15.0
16.3
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +11.2
25.2
17.3
Point DiffBAL +26.2
-8.8
83%
Win RateBAL +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%BUF
BUF 78%
NE 22%

Team Profile

BUF
NE

Key Factors

BUFStatNE
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +10.0
17.8
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +7.8
28.2
7.5
Point DiffBUF +17.8
-10.3
67%
Win RateBUF +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%HOU
HOU 60%
IND 40%

Team Profile

HOU
IND

Key Factors

HOUStatIND
18.3
PPG (Off)IND +5.2
23.5
19.8
PA/G (Def)HOU +9.7
29.5
-1.5
Point DiffHOU +4.5
-6.0
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tennessee Titans projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 71% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

71%TEN
CLE 29%
TEN 71%

Team Profile

CLE
TEN

Key Factors

CLEStatTEN
12.0
PPG (Off)TEN +6.2
18.2
28.0
PA/G (Def)CLE +0.3
28.3
-16.0
Point DiffTEN +5.8
-10.2
0%
Win Rate
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 93% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

93%WAS
NYG 7%
WAS 93%

Team Profile

NYG
WAS

Key Factors

NYGStatWAS
18.3
PPG (Off)WAS +11.7
30.0
27.2
PA/G (Def)NYG +3.2
30.3
-8.8
Point DiffWAS +8.5
-0.3
17%
Win RateWAS +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New Orleans Saints. Model assigns a 97% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

97%ATL
NO 3%
ATL 97%

Team Profile

NO
ATL

Key Factors

NOStatATL
12.7
PPG (Off)ATL +11.5
24.2
23.0
PA/G (Def)NO +1.8
24.8
-10.3
Point DiffATL +9.7
-0.7
17%
Win RateATL +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 90% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

90%TB
TB 90%
CAR 10%

Team Profile

TB
CAR

Key Factors

TBStatCAR
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +6.7
24.5
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +13.7
32.3
12.5
Point DiffTB +20.3
-7.8
67%
Win RateTB +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Dallas Cowboys projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 65% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

65%DAL
DAL 65%
CHI 35%

Team Profile

DAL
CHI

Key Factors

DALStatCHI
21.5
PPG (Off)DAL +6.7
14.8
24.8
PA/G (Def)DAL +0.7
25.5
-3.3
Point DiffDAL +7.3
-10.7
50%
Win RateDAL +33%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%MIN
MIN 60%
SF 40%

Team Profile

MIN
SF

Key Factors

MINStatSF
24.0
PPG (Off)MIN +2.5
21.5
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +6.0
29.3
0.7
Point DiffMIN +8.5
-7.8
67%
Win RateMIN +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 57% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

57%LAC
KC 43%
LAC 57%

Team Profile

KC
LAC

Key Factors

KCStatLAC
22.0
PPG (Off)LAC +3.7
25.7
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +4.7
24.2
2.5
Point DiffKC +1.0
1.5
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Rams projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%LAR
SEA 45%
LAR 56%

Team Profile

SEA
LAR

Key Factors

SEAStatLAR
21.5
PPG (Off)SEA +1.8
19.7
20.7
PA/G (Def)LAR +5.5
15.2
0.8
Point DiffLAR +3.7
4.5
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Jets. Model assigns a 85% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

85%PHI
PHI 85%
NYJ 15%

Team Profile

PHI
NYJ

Key Factors

PHIStatNYJ
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +10.8
22.3
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +8.5
27.0
14.7
Point DiffPHI +19.3
-4.7
83%
Win RatePHI +50%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 16
13 games

Los Angeles Rams projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%LAR
KC 45%
LAR 55%

Team Profile

KC
LAR

Key Factors

KCStatLAR
22.0
PPG (Off)KC +2.3
19.7
19.5
PA/G (Def)LAR +4.3
15.2
2.5
Point DiffLAR +2.0
4.5
83%
Win RateKC +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 79% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

79%BUF
MIA 21%
BUF 79%

Team Profile

MIA
BUF

Key Factors

MIAStatBUF
21.7
PPG (Off)BUF +6.2
27.8
21.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +1.0
20.3
0.3
Point DiffBUF +7.2
7.5
50%
Win RateBUF +17%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 65% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

65%CIN
CIN 65%
PIT 35%

Team Profile

CIN
PIT

Key Factors

CINStatPIT
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +12.8
16.3
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +2.2
25.2
6.2
Point DiffCIN +15.0
-8.8
83%
Win RateCIN +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%JAX
JAX 61%
IND 39%

Team Profile

JAX
IND

Key Factors

JAXStatIND
18.7
PPG (Off)IND +4.8
23.5
19.8
PA/G (Def)JAX +9.7
29.5
-1.2
Point DiffJAX +4.8
-6.0
33%
Win RateIND +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 80% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

80%HOU
TEN 20%
HOU 80%

Team Profile

TEN
HOU

Key Factors

TENStatHOU
18.2
PPG (Off)HOU +0.2
18.3
28.3
PA/G (Def)HOU +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffHOU +8.7
-1.5
0%
Win RateHOU +50%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over New York Giants. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%NO
NYG 45%
NO 55%

Team Profile

NYG
NO

Key Factors

NYGStatNO
18.3
PPG (Off)NYG +5.7
12.7
27.2
PA/G (Def)NO +4.2
23.0
-8.8
Point DiffNYG +1.5
-10.3
17%
Win Rate
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Atlanta Falcons projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 59% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

59%ATL
CAR 42%
ATL 59%

Team Profile

CAR
ATL

Key Factors

CARStatATL
24.5
PPG (Off)CAR +0.3
24.2
32.3
PA/G (Def)ATL +7.5
24.8
-7.8
Point DiffATL +7.2
-0.7
33%
Win Rate
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%TB
WAS 17%
TB 83%

Team Profile

WAS
TB

Key Factors

WASStatTB
30.0
PPG (Off)TB +1.2
31.2
30.3
PA/G (Def)TB +11.7
18.7
-0.3
Point DiffTB +12.8
12.5
83%
Win RateWAS +16%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

81%MIN
DAL 19%
MIN 81%

Team Profile

DAL
MIN

Key Factors

DALStatMIN
21.5
PPG (Off)MIN +2.5
24.0
24.8
PA/G (Def)MIN +1.5
23.3
-3.3
Point DiffMIN +4.0
0.7
50%
Win RateMIN +17%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Chicago Bears projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%CHI
DET 22%
CHI 78%

Team Profile

DET
CHI

Key Factors

DETStatCHI
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +20.5
14.8
30.7
PA/G (Def)CHI +5.2
25.5
4.7
Point DiffDET +15.3
-10.7
67%
Win RateDET +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 72% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

72%ARI
SF 28%
ARI 72%

Team Profile

SF
ARI

Key Factors

SFStatARI
21.5
PPG (Off)ARI +4.5
26.0
29.3
PA/G (Def)ARI +5.5
23.8
-7.8
Point DiffARI +10.0
2.2
17%
Win RateARI +16%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 91% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

91%DEN
LV 9%
DEN 91%

Team Profile

LV
DEN

Key Factors

LVStatDEN
17.2
PPG (Off)DEN +10.8
28.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +3.3
23.3
-2.8
Point DiffDEN +7.5
4.7
33%
Win RateDEN +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cincinnati Bengals projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Baltimore Ravens. Model assigns a 65% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

65%CIN
BAL 35%
CIN 65%

Team Profile

BAL
CIN

Key Factors

BALStatCIN
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +2.2
29.2
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +9.0
23.0
17.3
Point DiffBAL +11.2
6.2
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 17
13 games

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%PHI
PHI 82%
DAL 18%

Team Profile

PHI
DAL

Key Factors

PHIStatDAL
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
21.5
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
24.8
14.7
Point DiffPHI +18.0
-3.3
83%
Win RatePHI +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 51% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

51%BAL
BAL 51%
MIA 49%

Team Profile

BAL
MIA

Key Factors

BALStatMIA
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +9.7
21.7
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +7.3
21.3
17.3
Point DiffBAL +17.0
0.3
83%
Win RateBAL +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%BUF
BUF 78%
NE 22%

Team Profile

BUF
NE

Key Factors

BUFStatNE
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +10.0
17.8
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +7.8
28.2
7.5
Point DiffBUF +17.8
-10.3
67%
Win RateBUF +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 67% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

67%CLE
PIT 33%
CLE 67%

Team Profile

PIT
CLE

Key Factors

PITStatCLE
16.3
PPG (Off)PIT +4.3
12.0
25.2
PA/G (Def)PIT +2.8
28.0
-8.8
Point DiffPIT +7.2
-16.0
17%
Win RatePIT +17%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

61%JAX
IND 39%
JAX 61%

Team Profile

IND
JAX

Key Factors

INDStatJAX
23.5
PPG (Off)IND +4.8
18.7
29.5
PA/G (Def)JAX +9.7
19.8
-6.0
Point DiffJAX +4.8
-1.2
50%
Win RateIND +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

81%HOU
TEN 19%
HOU 81%

Team Profile

TEN
HOU

Key Factors

TENStatHOU
18.2
PPG (Off)HOU +0.2
18.3
28.3
PA/G (Def)HOU +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffHOU +8.7
-1.5
0%
Win RateHOU +50%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%NO
ATL 44%
NO 56%

Team Profile

ATL
NO

Key Factors

ATLStatNO
24.2
PPG (Off)ATL +11.5
12.7
24.8
PA/G (Def)NO +1.8
23.0
-0.7
Point DiffATL +9.7
-10.3
33%
Win RateATL +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Washington Commanders. Model assigns a 79% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

79%TB
TB 79%
WAS 21%

Team Profile

TB
WAS

Key Factors

TBStatWAS
31.2
PPG (Off)TB +1.2
30.0
18.7
PA/G (Def)TB +11.7
30.3
12.5
Point DiffTB +12.8
-0.3
67%
Win RateWAS +16%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 90% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

90%GB
GB 90%
DET 10%

Team Profile

GB
DET

Key Factors

GBStatDET
25.3
PPG (Off)DET +10.0
35.3
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +10.7
30.7
5.3
Point DiffGB +0.7
4.7
33%
Win RateDET +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Chicago Bears projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Minnesota Vikings. Model assigns a 55% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

55%CHI
MIN 45%
CHI 55%

Team Profile

MIN
CHI

Key Factors

MINStatCHI
24.0
PPG (Off)MIN +9.2
14.8
23.3
PA/G (Def)MIN +2.2
25.5
0.7
Point DiffMIN +11.3
-10.7
67%
Win RateMIN +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 57% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

57%LAC
LAC 57%
LV 43%

Team Profile

LAC
LV

Key Factors

LACStatLV
25.7
PPG (Off)LAC +8.5
17.2
24.2
PA/G (Def)LV +4.2
20.0
1.5
Point DiffLAC +4.3
-2.8
50%
Win RateLAC +17%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Seattle Seahawks projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over San Francisco 49ers. Model assigns a 73% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

73%SEA
SEA 73%
SF 27%

Team Profile

SEA
SF

Key Factors

SEAStatSF
21.5
PPG (Off)
21.5
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +8.7
29.3
0.8
Point DiffSEA +8.7
-7.8
67%
Win RateSEA +50%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Kansas City Chiefs projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Cincinnati Bengals. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

78%KC
CIN 22%
KC 78%

Team Profile

CIN
KC

Key Factors

CINStatKC
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +7.2
22.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)KC +3.5
19.5
6.2
Point DiffCIN +3.7
2.5
83%
Win Rate
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%
Week 18
16 games

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Kansas City Chiefs. Model assigns a 56% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

56%LAC
KC 44%
LAC 56%

Team Profile

KC
LAC

Key Factors

KCStatLAC
22.0
PPG (Off)LAC +3.7
25.7
19.5
PA/G (Def)KC +4.7
24.2
2.5
Point DiffKC +1.0
1.5
83%
Win RateKC +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Baltimore Ravens projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Pittsburgh Steelers. Model assigns a 84% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

84%BAL
BAL 84%
PIT 16%

Team Profile

BAL
PIT

Key Factors

BALStatPIT
31.3
PPG (Off)BAL +15.0
16.3
14.0
PA/G (Def)BAL +11.2
25.2
17.3
Point DiffBAL +26.2
-8.8
83%
Win RateBAL +66%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 76% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

76%BUF
BUF 76%
MIA 24%

Team Profile

BUF
MIA

Key Factors

BUFStatMIA
27.8
PPG (Off)BUF +6.2
21.7
20.3
PA/G (Def)BUF +1.0
21.3
7.5
Point DiffBUF +7.2
0.3
67%
Win RateBUF +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%HOU
HOU 60%
IND 40%

Team Profile

HOU
IND

Key Factors

HOUStatIND
18.3
PPG (Off)IND +5.2
23.5
19.8
PA/G (Def)HOU +9.7
29.5
-1.5
Point DiffHOU +4.5
-6.0
50%
Win Rate
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Tennessee Titans. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%JAX
TEN 18%
JAX 82%

Team Profile

TEN
JAX

Key Factors

TENStatJAX
18.2
PPG (Off)JAX +0.5
18.7
28.3
PA/G (Def)JAX +8.5
19.8
-10.2
Point DiffJAX +9.0
-1.2
0%
Win RateJAX +33%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New England Patriots projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Cleveland Browns. Model assigns a 77% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

77%NE
NE 77%
CLE 23%

Team Profile

NE
CLE

Key Factors

NEStatCLE
17.8
PPG (Off)NE +5.8
12.0
28.2
PA/G (Def)CLE +0.2
28.0
-10.3
Point DiffNE +5.7
-16.0
17%
Win RateNE +17%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Atlanta Falcons. Model assigns a 83% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

83%TB
ATL 17%
TB 83%

Team Profile

ATL
TB

Key Factors

ATLStatTB
24.2
PPG (Off)TB +7.0
31.2
24.8
PA/G (Def)TB +6.2
18.7
-0.7
Point DiffTB +13.2
12.5
33%
Win RateTB +34%
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

New Orleans Saints projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Carolina Panthers. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

58%NO
CAR 42%
NO 58%

Team Profile

CAR
NO

Key Factors

CARStatNO
24.5
PPG (Off)CAR +11.8
12.7
32.3
PA/G (Def)NO +9.3
23.0
-7.8
Point DiffCAR +2.5
-10.3
33%
Win RateCAR +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Washington Commanders projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New York Giants. Model assigns a 94% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

94%WAS
NYG 6%
WAS 94%

Team Profile

NYG
WAS

Key Factors

NYGStatWAS
18.3
PPG (Off)WAS +11.7
30.0
27.2
PA/G (Def)NYG +3.2
30.3
-8.8
Point DiffWAS +8.5
-0.3
17%
Win RateWAS +66%
83%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Philadelphia Eagles projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 82% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

82%PHI
PHI 82%
DAL 18%

Team Profile

PHI
DAL

Key Factors

PHIStatDAL
33.2
PPG (Off)PHI +11.7
21.5
18.5
PA/G (Def)PHI +6.3
24.8
14.7
Point DiffPHI +18.0
-3.3
83%
Win RatePHI +33%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 80% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

80%GB
GB 80%
CHI 21%

Team Profile

GB
CHI

Key Factors

GBStatCHI
25.3
PPG (Off)GB +10.5
14.8
20.0
PA/G (Def)GB +5.5
25.5
5.3
Point DiffGB +16.0
-10.7
33%
Win RateGB +16%
17%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 90% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

90%MIN
DET 10%
MIN 90%

Team Profile

DET
MIN

Key Factors

DETStatMIN
35.3
PPG (Off)DET +11.3
24.0
30.7
PA/G (Def)MIN +7.3
23.3
4.7
Point DiffDET +4.0
0.7
67%
Win Rate
67%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Cleveland Browns projected to win thanks to positive point differential over Cincinnati Bengals. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

53%CLE
CIN 48%
CLE 53%

Team Profile

CIN
CLE

Key Factors

CINStatCLE
29.2
PPG (Off)CIN +17.2
12.0
23.0
PA/G (Def)CIN +5.0
28.0
6.2
Point DiffCIN +22.2
-16.0
83%
Win RateCIN +83%
0%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Denver Broncos projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Las Vegas Raiders. Model assigns a 91% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

91%DEN
LV 9%
DEN 91%

Team Profile

LV
DEN

Key Factors

LVStatDEN
17.2
PPG (Off)DEN +10.8
28.0
20.0
PA/G (Def)LV +3.3
23.3
-2.8
Point DiffDEN +7.5
4.7
33%
Win RateDEN +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Arizona Cardinals projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Los Angeles Rams. Model assigns a 84% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

84%ARI
LAR 16%
ARI 84%

Team Profile

LAR
ARI

Key Factors

LARStatARI
19.7
PPG (Off)ARI +6.3
26.0
15.2
PA/G (Def)LAR +8.7
23.8
4.5
Point DiffLAR +2.3
2.2
67%
Win RateLAR +34%
33%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

Los Angeles Chargers projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Seattle Seahawks. Model assigns a 60% confidence to this outcome.

Win Probability

60%LAC
SEA 40%
LAC 60%

Team Profile

SEA
LAC

Key Factors

SEAStatLAC
21.5
PPG (Off)LAC +4.2
25.7
20.7
PA/G (Def)SEA +3.5
24.2
0.8
Point DiffLAC +0.7
1.5
67%
Win RateSEA +17%
50%
6g
Games (form)
6g
XGBoost · 300 trees · rolling 6-game windowModel accuracy: 61.8%

How It Works

1 · Data

ESPN scoreboard API · 2021–2024 regular season + playoffs · 1,136 completed games

2 · Features

Rolling 6-game window per team: win rate, PPG, points allowed, point differential. All features computed from prior games only — no future data.

3 · Model

XGBoost classifier · 300 trees · depth 4 · time-series train/test split (75/25) · home field advantage included as implicit feature.