Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 58% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
DET
GBKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
DET
27.7
proj pts
Total O/U
55.7
pts
GB
28
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Green Bay Packers Offense
25.3 PPG vs Detroit Lions (allows 30.7)
Detroit Lions Offense
35.3 PPG vs Green Bay Packers (allows 20.0)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Lions -10.1
Total O/U
63.7
Upset %
-5660%
Momentum Score
Green Bay Packers Edges
Home field advantage
Stronger pass defense (allows 20.0 vs 30.7)
Positive point differential (+5.3)
Detroit Lions Edges
Road warrior mentality (67% win rate)
Dynamic scoring attack (+10.0 PPG edge)
Strong point differential (+4.7)
Our model favors Detroit Lions by 10.1 points against the spread despite playing on the road.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Detroit Lions
Head Coach
Dan Campbell
Starting QB
Jared Goff
physical, run-first attack that creates explosive passing opportunities off play-action
aggressive, assignment-sound defense that prioritizes stopping the run
Green Bay Packers
Head Coach
Matt LaFleur
Starting QB
Jordan Love
West Coast passing attack with deep play-action shots and creative route combinations
zone-based coverage scheme that limits explosive plays and forces field goals
Key Players
Goff has evolved into one of the NFL's most accurate quarterbacks within Campbell's system. His ability to process quickly and deliver in rhythm makes the Lions' play-action passing game consistently explosive.
Love has emerged as one of the NFC's most dangerous quarterbacks. His arm talent in the deep game is exceptional, and his comfort in LaFleur's system has grown dramatically.
St. Brown's ability to consistently create separation in the slot and convert on third downs has made him Goff's most reliable option. He leads the team in contested catch situations.
Reed's explosiveness in the slot and ability to create yards after the catch make him Love's most dangerous short-to-intermediate option.
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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Week 5 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Green Bay Packers to win the Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Week 5 2026 matchup with 58% confidence. The model gives the Green Bay Packers a 58% win probability and the Detroit Lions a 42% win probability.
When and where is the Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers game?+
The Detroit Lions face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC, hosted at Lambeau Field. The game airs on FOX.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 5 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 58% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers game?+
The Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Week 5 game is scheduled to air on FOX. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
FOX
Venue
Lambeau Field