Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 61% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
JAX
INDKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
JAX
24.1
proj pts
Total O/U
45.8
pts
IND
21.7
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Indianapolis Colts Offense
23.5 PPG vs Jacksonville Jaguars (allows 19.8)
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense
18.7 PPG vs Indianapolis Colts (allows 29.5)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Colts -4.9
Total O/U
44.3
Upset %
-3780%
Momentum Score
Indianapolis Colts Edges
Home field advantage
Superior scoring offense (+4.8 PPG)
Better win percentage (50% vs 33%)
Jacksonville Jaguars Edges
Suffocating defense (19.8 pts allowed)
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Indianapolis Colts by 4.9 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach
Doug Pederson
Starting QB
Trevor Lawrence
creative, spread-formation attack built around Lawrence's arm talent and receiver depth
multiple-coverage scheme that leverages their cornerback depth
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach
Shane Steichen
Starting QB
Anthony Richardson
dynamic, dual-threat system built around Richardson's exceptional physical tools
assignment-sound, zone-heavy scheme designed to limit explosive plays
Key Players
Lawrence's arm talent and competitive drive make him one of the AFC's most dangerous quarterbacks when the Jaguars are executing.
Richardson's physical tools are extraordinary — his combination of arm strength and speed makes him a genuine dual-threat weapon.
Ridley's route running precision and ability to create separation against press coverage give Lawrence a reliable deep option.
Taylor remains one of the best pure runners in the AFC. His ability to create yards after contact and break tackles in the open field gives Indianapolis an explosive element.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Week 16 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Week 16 2026 matchup with 61% confidence. The model gives the Indianapolis Colts a 39% win probability and the Jacksonville Jaguars a 61% win probability.
When and where is the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts game?+
The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, December 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC, hosted at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game airs on CBS.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 16 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 61% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts game?+
The Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Week 16 game is scheduled to air on CBS. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM UTC
Network
CBS
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium