Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Houston Texans projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Indianapolis Colts. Model assigns a 64% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
IND
HOUKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
IND
21.7
proj pts
Total O/U
45.6
pts
HOU
23.9
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Houston Texans Offense
18.3 PPG vs Indianapolis Colts (allows 29.5)
Indianapolis Colts Offense
23.5 PPG vs Houston Texans (allows 19.8)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Colts -3.1
Total O/U
43.9
Upset %
-6330%
Momentum Score
Houston Texans Edges
Home field advantage
Stronger pass defense (allows 19.8 vs 29.5)
Familiar game-day environment
Indianapolis Colts Edges
Dynamic scoring attack (+5.2 PPG edge)
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Indianapolis Colts by 3.1 points against the spread despite playing on the road.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach
Shane Steichen
Starting QB
Anthony Richardson
dynamic, dual-threat system built around Richardson's exceptional physical tools
assignment-sound, zone-heavy scheme designed to limit explosive plays
Houston Texans
Head Coach
DeMeco Ryans
Starting QB
C.J. Stroud
precise, quick-rhythm passing attack built around Stroud's processing and Nico Collins' explosiveness
aggressive, multiple-pressure scheme that creates chaos in opposing backfields
Key Players
Richardson's physical tools are extraordinary — his combination of arm strength and speed makes him a genuine dual-threat weapon.
Stroud's football IQ is exceptional. His ability to process pre-snap information and deliver on time makes Houston's offense efficient on every down.
Taylor remains one of the best pure runners in the AFC. His ability to create yards after contact and break tackles in the open field gives Indianapolis an explosive element.
Collins' combination of size and speed makes him Stroud's most dangerous downfield target. His ability to beat single coverage vertically gives Houston an explosive element.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Week 11 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Houston Texans to win the Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Week 11 2026 matchup with 64% confidence. The model gives the Houston Texans a 64% win probability and the Indianapolis Colts a 36% win probability.
When and where is the Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans game?+
The Indianapolis Colts face the Houston Texans on Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC, hosted at NRG Stadium. The game airs on CBS.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 11 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 64% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans game?+
The Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Week 11 game is scheduled to air on CBS. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM UTC
Network
CBS
Venue
NRG Stadium