Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears projected to win thanks to stronger defensive efficiency over Detroit Lions. Model assigns a 78% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
DET
CHIKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
DET
30.4
proj pts
Total O/U
53.2
pts
CHI
22.8
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Chicago Bears Offense
14.8 PPG vs Detroit Lions (allows 30.7)
Detroit Lions Offense
35.3 PPG vs Chicago Bears (allows 25.5)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Lions -18.3
Total O/U
52.7
Upset %
-7720%
Momentum Score
Chicago Bears Edges
Home field advantage
Stronger pass defense (allows 25.5 vs 30.7)
Familiar game-day environment
Detroit Lions Edges
Road warrior mentality (67% win rate)
Dynamic scoring attack (+20.5 PPG edge)
Strong point differential (+4.7)
Our model favors Detroit Lions by 18.3 points against the spread despite playing on the road.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Detroit Lions
Head Coach
Dan Campbell
Starting QB
Jared Goff
physical, run-first attack that creates explosive passing opportunities off play-action
aggressive, assignment-sound defense that prioritizes stopping the run
Chicago Bears
Head Coach
Ben Johnson
Starting QB
Caleb Williams
innovative, Williams-tailored system built around his arm talent and mobility
developing defensive scheme focused on creating turnovers
Key Players
Goff has evolved into one of the NFL's most accurate quarterbacks within Campbell's system. His ability to process quickly and deliver in rhythm makes the Lions' play-action passing game consistently explosive.
Williams' arm talent and mobility make him one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. His ability to make difficult throws in tight windows and extend plays with his legs gives Chicago an explosive ceiling.
St. Brown's ability to consistently create separation in the slot and convert on third downs has made him Goff's most reliable option. He leads the team in contested catch situations.
Moore's route precision and ability to create separation against press coverage give Williams a reliable target at every level of the field.
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Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Week 16 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Chicago Bears to win the Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Week 16 2026 matchup with 78% confidence. The model gives the Chicago Bears a 78% win probability and the Detroit Lions a 22% win probability.
When and where is the Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears game?+
The Detroit Lions face the Chicago Bears on Sunday, December 20, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC, hosted at Soldier Field. The game airs on FOX.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 16 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 78% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears game?+
The Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Week 16 game is scheduled to air on FOX. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Dec 20, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
FOX
Venue
Soldier Field