Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Chicago Bears. Model assigns a 86% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
CHI
MINKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
CHI
19.1
proj pts
Total O/U
43.9
pts
MIN
24.8
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Minnesota Vikings Offense
24.0 PPG vs Chicago Bears (allows 25.5)
Chicago Bears Offense
14.8 PPG vs Minnesota Vikings (allows 23.3)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Vikings -11.5
Total O/U
40.8
Upset %
-8470%
Momentum Score
Minnesota Vikings Edges
Home field advantage
Superior scoring offense (+9.2 PPG)
Better win percentage (67% vs 17%)
Chicago Bears Edges
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings by 11.5 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Chicago Bears
Head Coach
Ben Johnson
Starting QB
Caleb Williams
innovative, Williams-tailored system built around his arm talent and mobility
developing defensive scheme focused on creating turnovers
Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach
Kevin O'Connell
Starting QB
Sam Darnold
creative, motion-heavy attack built around Justin Jefferson's talent
zone-heavy coverage scheme leveraging cornerback talent
Key Players
Williams' arm talent and mobility make him one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. His ability to make difficult throws in tight windows and extend plays with his legs gives Chicago an explosive ceiling.
Jefferson is a generational talent who creates advantages against any coverage. His combination of route precision, contested-catch ability, and explosiveness after the catch makes him the most dangerous receiver in the NFC North.
Moore's route precision and ability to create separation against press coverage give Williams a reliable target at every level of the field.
Darnold's experience and mobility give Minnesota a functional quarterback in O'Connell's system. When he's decisive and gets the ball to Jefferson early, the Vikings' offense generates consistent production.
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Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Minnesota Vikings to win the Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 2026 matchup with 86% confidence. The model gives the Minnesota Vikings a 86% win probability and the Chicago Bears a 14% win probability.
When and where is the Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings game?+
The Chicago Bears face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC, hosted at U.S. Bank Stadium. The game airs on FOX.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 1 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 86% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings game?+
The Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Week 1 game is scheduled to air on FOX. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
FOX
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium