Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Miami Dolphins. Model assigns a 79% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
MIA
BUFKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
MIA
21
proj pts
Total O/U
45.6
pts
BUF
24.6
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Buffalo Bills Offense
27.8 PPG vs Miami Dolphins (allows 21.3)
Miami Dolphins Offense
21.7 PPG vs Buffalo Bills (allows 20.3)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Bills -5.7
Total O/U
52
Upset %
-7840%
Momentum Score
Buffalo Bills Edges
Home field advantage
Superior scoring offense (+6.2 PPG)
Better win percentage (67% vs 50%)
Positive point differential (+7.5)
Miami Dolphins Edges
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Buffalo Bills by 5.7 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach
Mike McDaniel
Starting QB
Tua Tagovailoa
speed-based, precision passing attack that leverages the NFL's deepest wide receiver corps
aggressive, pressure-first defense that generates turnovers
Buffalo Bills
Head Coach
Sean McDermott
Starting QB
Josh Allen
explosive, multi-faceted attack leveraging Allen's arm and legs equally
zone-heavy coverage scheme that maximizes their cornerback talent
Key Players
When healthy, Tua is one of the AFC's most accurate passers. His ability to deliver on time and in rhythm makes Miami's speed-based offense extraordinarily difficult to defend.
Allen is the most physically gifted quarterback in football. His combination of arm strength and rushing ability gives Buffalo a weekly chance to beat any team in the league.
Hill remains the fastest receiver in professional football. His ability to threaten the defense vertically on every snap forces safeties to play deep, opening space for other receivers.
Diggs' route precision and contested-catch ability make him Allen's most reliable target in critical moments. He wins on all three levels of the field and understands how to manipulate cornerback leverage.
Related Predictions
All picks
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Week 16 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Buffalo Bills to win the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Week 16 2026 matchup with 79% confidence. The model gives the Buffalo Bills a 79% win probability and the Miami Dolphins a 21% win probability.
When and where is the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills game?+
The Miami Dolphins face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, December 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC, hosted at Highmark Stadium. The game airs on CBS.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 16 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 79% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills game?+
The Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Week 16 game is scheduled to air on CBS. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM UTC
Network
CBS
Venue
Highmark Stadium