Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over Dallas Cowboys. Model assigns a 81% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
DAL
MINKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
DAL
22.4
proj pts
Total O/U
46.8
pts
MIN
24.4
proj pts
Scoring Edges
Minnesota Vikings Offense
24.0 PPG vs Dallas Cowboys (allows 24.8)
Dallas Cowboys Offense
21.5 PPG vs Minnesota Vikings (allows 23.3)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Vikings -3.5
Total O/U
47.8
Upset %
-7990%
Momentum Score
Minnesota Vikings Edges
Home field advantage
Better win percentage (67% vs 50%)
Familiar game-day environment
Dallas Cowboys Edges
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings by 3.5 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach
Mike McCarthy
Starting QB
Dak Prescott
balanced, spread-formation attack that leverages Prescott's arm and CeeDee Lamb's talent
aggressive, Micah Parsons-anchored defense that creates havoc in opposing backfields
Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach
Kevin O'Connell
Starting QB
Sam Darnold
creative, motion-heavy attack built around Justin Jefferson's talent
zone-heavy coverage scheme leveraging cornerback talent
Key Players
Prescott's arm talent and ability to operate in a spread formation make him one of the NFC's most productive passers. He's at his best when the Cowboys can establish early success and build rhythm.
Jefferson is a generational talent who creates advantages against any coverage. His combination of route precision, contested-catch ability, and explosiveness after the catch makes him the most dangerous receiver in the NFC North.
Lamb is one of the best receivers in football. His combination of route running, yards after catch, and contested-catch ability makes him nearly impossible to match up against with a single cornerback.
Darnold's experience and mobility give Minnesota a functional quarterback in O'Connell's system. When he's decisive and gets the ball to Jefferson early, the Vikings' offense generates consistent production.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Week 16 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the Minnesota Vikings to win the Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Week 16 2026 matchup with 81% confidence. The model gives the Minnesota Vikings a 81% win probability and the Dallas Cowboys a 19% win probability.
When and where is the Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings game?+
The Dallas Cowboys face the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, December 20, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC, hosted at U.S. Bank Stadium. The game airs on FOX.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 16 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 81% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings game?+
The Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings Week 16 game is scheduled to air on FOX. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Dec 20, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
FOX
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium