San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

Monday, August 17, 2026

Win Probability

AI Model · 68% confidence

San Diego Padres40%

New York Mets60%

Model Prediction

New York Mets

Confidence

68%

Team StrengthEVEN

Historical program strength and overall quality rating

wt 30%

NYM: 48/100NYM rated 80/100 vs SD rated 82/100SD: 52/100

Offensive PowerEVEN

Average Runs per Game scored this season

wt 25%

NYM: 90/100NYM: 4.2 | SD: 4.3SD: 90/100

Defensive StrengthEVEN

Average Runs Allowed/Game allowed this season

wt 20%

NYM: 50/100NYM: 4.0 | SD: 3.9SD: 53/100

Home AdvantageHOME EDGE

Home crowd, familiar stadium, no travel fatigue

wt 15%

NYM: 53/100NYM home win rate: 55%SD: 47/100

Current FormHOME EDGE

Recent performance trend over last 5–10 games

wt 10%

NYM: 54/100Form index — NYM: 80 | SD: 74SD: 46/100

Date

Mon, August 17, 2026

Network

MLB.TV