Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Win Probability

AI Model · 77% confidence

Miami Marlins35%

New York Mets65%

Model Prediction

New York Mets

Confidence

77%

Team StrengthHOME EDGE

Historical program strength and overall quality rating

wt 30%

NYM: 58/100NYM rated 80/100 vs MIA rated 70/100MIA: 42/100

Offensive PowerHOME EDGE

Average Runs per Game scored this season

wt 25%

NYM: 90/100NYM: 4.2 | MIA: 1.5MIA: 36/100

Defensive StrengthAWAY EDGE

Average Runs Allowed/Game allowed this season

wt 20%

NYM: 50/100NYM: 4.0 | MIA: 1.5MIA: 90/100

Home AdvantageHOME EDGE

Home crowd, familiar stadium, no travel fatigue

wt 15%

NYM: 56/100NYM home win rate: 55%MIA: 44/100

Current FormHOME EDGE

Recent performance trend over last 5–10 games

wt 10%

NYM: 71/100Form index — NYM: 90 | MIA: 60MIA: 29/100

Date

Thu, July 30, 2026

Network

MLB.TV