New England Patriots @ New York Jets
New York Jets projected to win thanks to superior scoring offense over New England Patriots. Model assigns a 53% confidence to this outcome.
Win Probability
Team Profile
NE
NYJKey Factors
Game Projections
Derived from each team's last 6-game scoring averages vs opponent defense
NE
22.4
proj pts
Total O/U
47.7
pts
NYJ
25.3
proj pts
Scoring Edges
New York Jets Offense
22.3 PPG vs New England Patriots (allows 28.2)
New England Patriots Offense
17.8 PPG vs New York Jets (allows 27.0)
Projections use rolling 6-game team averages. Not financial advice.
Analytics Breakdown
Model-derived betting metrics & edge factors
Proj Spread
Jets -4.6
Total O/U
42.2
Upset %
-5200%
Momentum Score
New York Jets Edges
Home field advantage
Superior scoring offense (+4.5 PPG)
Better win percentage (33% vs 17%)
New England Patriots Edges
Motivated road performance
Proven consistency in tough environments
Our model favors New York Jets by 4.6 points — look for value on the home side covering.
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchup data available.
Injury Report
Latest injury designations from ESPN
No significant injuries reported
Team & Player Breakdown
New England Patriots
Head Coach
Jerod Mayo
Starting QB
Drake Maye
developing system built around Maye's arm talent and mobility
disciplined, scheme-first defense built on Belichick-era principles
New York Jets
Head Coach
Robert Saleh
Starting QB
Aaron Rodgers
experience-driven, play-action attack built around Rodgers' football IQ and downfield precision
physical, man-coverage defense anchored by elite cornerback play
Key Players
Maye is one of the most intriguing young quarterbacks in the league. His arm talent, processing speed, and mobility give New England a genuine foundational piece.
Rodgers' football IQ remains elite. His ability to process pre-snap information and manipulate defenses with eyes and pump fakes is unmatched.
Polk's route running and ability to create separation in the slot give Maye a reliable intermediate target.
Wilson is one of the most technically refined route runners in the NFL. His ability to create separation against press coverage and make contested catches has made him the Jets' most dangerous offensive weapon.
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New England Patriots vs New York Jets — Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win the New England Patriots vs New York Jets Week 3 game?+
Our AI prediction model picks the New York Jets to win the New England Patriots vs New York Jets Week 3 2026 matchup with 53% confidence. The model gives the New York Jets a 53% win probability and the New England Patriots a 47% win probability.
When and where is the New England Patriots vs New York Jets game?+
The New England Patriots face the New York Jets on Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC, hosted at MetLife Stadium. The game airs on CBS.
What is the confidence level on this NFL Week 3 prediction?+
Our machine-learning model rates this pick at 53% confidence, based on 4+ seasons of team performance data, offensive/defensive splits, recent form, home/road splits, and pace-adjusted efficiency. Higher confidence generally means the model sees a wider gap between the two teams.
What TV network is broadcasting the New England Patriots at New York Jets game?+
The New England Patriots at New York Jets Week 3 game is scheduled to air on CBS. Check your local listings or the NFL Predictions Hub schedule closer to kickoff for the latest broadcast information.
How accurate are NFL Predictions Hub's AI picks?+
Our XGBoost-based prediction model is trained on 4+ seasons of NFL play-by-play, team, and situational data. It tracks a rolling win rate against the moneyline that is published on our model transparency page. Individual picks are probabilistic — even a 75% confidence pick will miss 1 in 4 times over a long enough sample.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM UTC
Network
CBS
Venue
MetLife Stadium