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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPN UnlmtdAI PredictionUTSA @ TXST
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Texas State BobcatsWIN PROBABILITYUTSA Roadrunners
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Texas State Bobcats
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Bobcats 50/10050/100 Roadrunners
Texas State Bobcats
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
UTSA Roadrunners
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
TXST rates 50/100 vs UTSA at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Bobcats 0/1000/100 Roadrunners
Texas State Bobcats
0-0 (0% win rate)
UTSA Roadrunners
0-0 (0% win rate)
TXST is 0-0 vs UTSA at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
TXST wins43 – 32
2023
TXST wins38 – 19
2022
UTSA wins21 – 16
2021
UTSA wins23 – 18
2020
UTSA wins34 – 24
2019
TXST wins26 – 10
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Texas State Bobcats
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
UTSA Roadrunners
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM UTC
Network
ESPN Unlmtd
Stadium
Unknown Stadium