Back to CFB Predictions
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 4
ESPN+AI PredictionUTM @ MEM
Saturday, September 19, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Memphis TigersWIN PROBABILITYUT Martin Skyhawks
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Memphis Tigers
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Tigers 50/10050/100 Skyhawks
Memphis Tigers
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
UT Martin Skyhawks
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
MEM rates 50/100 vs UTM at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Tigers 0/1000/100 Skyhawks
Memphis Tigers
0-0 (0% win rate)
UT Martin Skyhawks
0-0 (0% win rate)
MEM is 0-0 vs UTM at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
MEM wins41 – 33
2023
UTM wins42 – 38
2022
MEM wins35 – 16
2021
UTM wins37 – 22
2020
MEM wins44 – 36
2019
UTM wins42 – 31
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Memphis Tigers
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
UT Martin Skyhawks
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium