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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ACC ExtraAI PredictionUCD @ SMU
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 60% confidence
SMU MustangsWIN PROBABILITYUC Davis Aggies
54%
46%
MODEL PICK
SMU Mustangs
CONFIDENCE
60%
2
Home Edge
5
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Mustangs 50/10050/100 Aggies
SMU Mustangs
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
UC Davis Aggies
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
SMU rates 50/100 vs UCD at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Mustangs 0/1000/100 Aggies
SMU Mustangs
0-0 (0% win rate)
UC Davis Aggies
0-0 (0% win rate)
SMU is 0-0 vs UCD at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
UCD wins26 – 17
2023
SMU wins44 – 10
2022
SMU wins36 – 18
2021
SMU wins22 – 10
2020
SMU wins46 – 37
2019
UCD wins40 – 27
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
SMU Mustangs
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
UC Davis Aggies
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM UTC
Network
ACC Extra
Stadium
Unknown Stadium