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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
FS1AI Prediction

TOL @ Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 5, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 73% confidence

Michigan State SpartansWIN PROBABILITYToledo Rockets
60%
40%

MODEL PICK

Michigan State Spartans

CONFIDENCE

73%

5

Home Edge

2

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Spartans 66/10050/100 Rockets

Michigan State Spartans

66/100 — 34-35 over 6 seasons

Toledo Rockets

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

Michigan State Spartans rates 66/100 vs TOL at 50/100 — a 16-point gap in program quality.

Spartans 0/1000/100 Rockets

Michigan State Spartans

0-0 (0% win rate)

Toledo Rockets

0-0 (0% win rate)

Michigan State Spartans is 0-0 vs TOL at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

42
2024
Spartans wins2514
2023
Spartans wins359
2022
TOL wins4220
2021
TOL wins4120
2020
Spartans wins3325
2019
Spartans wins2610

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Michigan State Spartans

34-35 overall
2019
7-6
2020
2-5
2021
11-2AP #3
2022
5-7
2023
4-8
2024
5-7

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

Toledo Rockets

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 AM UTC

Network

FS1

Stadium

Spartan Stadium