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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
FS1AI PredictionTOL @ Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 73% confidence
Michigan State SpartansWIN PROBABILITYToledo Rockets
60%
40%
MODEL PICK
Michigan State Spartans
CONFIDENCE
73%
5
Home Edge
2
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Spartans 66/10050/100 Rockets
Michigan State Spartans
66/100 — 34-35 over 6 seasons
Toledo Rockets
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Michigan State Spartans rates 66/100 vs TOL at 50/100 — a 16-point gap in program quality.
Spartans 0/1000/100 Rockets
Michigan State Spartans
0-0 (0% win rate)
Toledo Rockets
0-0 (0% win rate)
Michigan State Spartans is 0-0 vs TOL at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
Spartans wins25 – 14
2023
Spartans wins35 – 9
2022
TOL wins42 – 20
2021
TOL wins41 – 20
2020
Spartans wins33 – 25
2019
Spartans wins26 – 10
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Michigan State Spartans
34-35 overall2019
7-6
2020
2-5
2021
11-2AP #3
2022
5-7
2023
4-8
2024
5-7
AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons
Toledo Rockets
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 AM UTC
Network
FS1
Stadium
Spartan Stadium