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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPNAI PredictionTXST @ Texas Longhorns
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 73% confidence
Texas LonghornsWIN PROBABILITYTexas State Bobcats
60%
40%
MODEL PICK
Texas Longhorns
CONFIDENCE
73%
4
Home Edge
3
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Longhorns 79/10050/100 Bobcats
Texas Longhorns
79/100 — 53-25 over 6 seasons
Texas State Bobcats
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Texas Longhorns rates 79/100 vs TXST at 50/100 — a 29-point gap in program quality.
Longhorns 0/1000/100 Bobcats
Texas Longhorns
0-0 (0% win rate)
Texas State Bobcats
0-0 (0% win rate)
Texas Longhorns is 0-0 vs TXST at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
TXST wins48 – 29
2023
Longhorns wins43 – 8
2022
TXST wins42 – 29
2021
TXST wins39 – 31
2020
Longhorns wins43 – 15
2019
Longhorns wins25 – 9
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Texas Longhorns
53-25 overall2019
8-5
2020
7-3
2021
5-7
2022
8-5
2023
12-2AP #3
2024
13-3AP #5
AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons
Texas State Bobcats
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM UTC
Network
ESPN
Stadium
Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium