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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPNAI Prediction

TXST @ Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 5, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 73% confidence

Texas LonghornsWIN PROBABILITYTexas State Bobcats
60%
40%

MODEL PICK

Texas Longhorns

CONFIDENCE

73%

4

Home Edge

3

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Longhorns 79/10050/100 Bobcats

Texas Longhorns

79/100 — 53-25 over 6 seasons

Texas State Bobcats

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

Texas Longhorns rates 79/100 vs TXST at 50/100 — a 29-point gap in program quality.

Longhorns 0/1000/100 Bobcats

Texas Longhorns

0-0 (0% win rate)

Texas State Bobcats

0-0 (0% win rate)

Texas Longhorns is 0-0 vs TXST at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
TXST wins4829
2023
Longhorns wins438
2022
TXST wins4229
2021
TXST wins3931
2020
Longhorns wins4315
2019
Longhorns wins259

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Texas Longhorns

53-25 overall
2019
8-5
2020
7-3
2021
5-7
2022
8-5
2023
12-2AP #3
2024
13-3AP #5

AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons

Texas State Bobcats

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM UTC

Network

ESPN

Stadium

Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium