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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 6
ESPN UnlmtdAI Prediction

TXST @ San Diego State Aztecs

Sunday, October 4, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 59% confidence

San Diego State AztecsWIN PROBABILITYTexas State Bobcats
54%
46%

MODEL PICK

San Diego State Aztecs

CONFIDENCE

59%

2

Home Edge

4

Neutral

1

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Aztecs 60/10050/100 Bobcats

San Diego State Aztecs

60/100 — 50-24 over 6 seasons

Texas State Bobcats

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

San Diego State Aztecs rates 60/100 vs TXST at 50/100 — a 10-point gap in program quality.

Aztecs 0/1000/100 Bobcats

San Diego State Aztecs

0-0 (0% win rate)

Texas State Bobcats

0-0 (0% win rate)

San Diego State Aztecs is 0-0 vs TXST at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
Aztecs wins2512
2023
TXST wins2217
2022
TXST wins2818
2021
Aztecs wins2418
2020
TXST wins4631
2019
Aztecs wins259

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

San Diego State Aztecs

50-24 overall
2019
11-3
2020
4-4
2021
12-2
2022
7-6
2023
9-4
2024
7-5

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

Texas State Bobcats

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sun, Oct 4, 2:30 AM UTC

Network

ESPN Unlmtd

Stadium

Snapdragon Stadium