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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 6
ESPN UnlmtdAI PredictionTXST @ San Diego State Aztecs
Sunday, October 4, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 59% confidence
San Diego State AztecsWIN PROBABILITYTexas State Bobcats
54%
46%
MODEL PICK
San Diego State Aztecs
CONFIDENCE
59%
2
Home Edge
4
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Aztecs 60/10050/100 Bobcats
San Diego State Aztecs
60/100 — 50-24 over 6 seasons
Texas State Bobcats
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
San Diego State Aztecs rates 60/100 vs TXST at 50/100 — a 10-point gap in program quality.
Aztecs 0/1000/100 Bobcats
San Diego State Aztecs
0-0 (0% win rate)
Texas State Bobcats
0-0 (0% win rate)
San Diego State Aztecs is 0-0 vs TXST at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
Aztecs wins25 – 12
2023
TXST wins22 – 17
2022
TXST wins28 – 18
2021
Aztecs wins24 – 18
2020
TXST wins46 – 31
2019
Aztecs wins25 – 9
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
San Diego State Aztecs
50-24 overall2019
11-3
2020
4-4
2021
12-2
2022
7-6
2023
9-4
2024
7-5
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Texas State Bobcats
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 2:30 AM UTC
Network
ESPN Unlmtd
Stadium
Snapdragon Stadium