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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPN+AI PredictionSTBK @ BALL
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 60% confidence
Ball State CardinalsWIN PROBABILITYStony Brook Seawolves
54%
46%
MODEL PICK
Ball State Cardinals
CONFIDENCE
60%
2
Home Edge
5
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Cardinals 50/10050/100 Seawolves
Ball State Cardinals
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Stony Brook Seawolves
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
BALL rates 50/100 vs STBK at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Cardinals 0/1000/100 Seawolves
Ball State Cardinals
0-0 (0% win rate)
Stony Brook Seawolves
0-0 (0% win rate)
BALL is 0-0 vs STBK at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
BALL wins26 – 21
2023
BALL wins46 – 19
2022
BALL wins37 – 31
2021
BALL wins29 – 20
2020
STBK wins27 – 12
2019
STBK wins39 – 25
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Ball State Cardinals
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Stony Brook Seawolves
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium