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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPNAI PredictionSMU @ Florida State Seminoles
Monday, September 7, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 76% confidence
Florida State SeminolesWIN PROBABILITYSMU Mustangs
61%
39%
MODEL PICK
Florida State Seminoles
CONFIDENCE
76%
5
Home Edge
2
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Seminoles 74/10050/100 Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles
74/100 — 44-30 over 6 seasons
SMU Mustangs
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Florida State Seminoles rates 74/100 vs SMU at 50/100 — a 24-point gap in program quality.
Seminoles 0/1000/100 Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles
0-0 (0% win rate)
SMU Mustangs
0-0 (0% win rate)
Florida State Seminoles is 0-0 vs SMU at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
Seminoles wins39 – 28
2023
SMU wins32 – 10
2022
SMU wins42 – 30
2021
Seminoles wins28 – 22
2020
Seminoles wins26 – 12
2019
Seminoles wins22 – 7
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Florida State Seminoles
44-30 overall2019
6-7
2020
8-3
2021
5-7
2022
10-3AP #6
2023
13-0AP #1
2024
2-10
AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons
SMU Mustangs
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Mon, Sep 7, 11:30 PM UTC
Network
ESPN
Stadium
Doak Campbell Stadium