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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPNAI Prediction

SMU @ Florida State Seminoles

Monday, September 7, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 76% confidence

Florida State SeminolesWIN PROBABILITYSMU Mustangs
61%
39%

MODEL PICK

Florida State Seminoles

CONFIDENCE

76%

5

Home Edge

2

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Seminoles 74/10050/100 Mustangs

Florida State Seminoles

74/100 — 44-30 over 6 seasons

SMU Mustangs

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

Florida State Seminoles rates 74/100 vs SMU at 50/100 — a 24-point gap in program quality.

Seminoles 0/1000/100 Mustangs

Florida State Seminoles

0-0 (0% win rate)

SMU Mustangs

0-0 (0% win rate)

Florida State Seminoles is 0-0 vs SMU at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

42
2024
Seminoles wins3928
2023
SMU wins3210
2022
SMU wins4230
2021
Seminoles wins2822
2020
Seminoles wins2612
2019
Seminoles wins227

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Florida State Seminoles

44-30 overall
2019
6-7
2020
8-3
2021
5-7
2022
10-3AP #6
2023
13-0AP #1
2024
2-10

AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons

SMU Mustangs

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Mon, Sep 7, 11:30 PM UTC

Network

ESPN

Stadium

Doak Campbell Stadium