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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 5
TBDAI PredictionSan Diego State Aztecs @ TOL
Saturday, September 26, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 58% confidence
Toledo RocketsWIN PROBABILITYSan Diego State Aztecs
53%
47%
MODEL PICK
Toledo Rockets
CONFIDENCE
58%
3
Home Edge
3
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Rockets 50/10060/100 Aztecs
Toledo Rockets
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
San Diego State Aztecs
60/100 — 50-24 over 6 seasons
TOL rates 50/100 vs San Diego State Aztecs at 60/100 — a 10-point gap in program quality.
Rockets 0/1000/100 Aztecs
Toledo Rockets
0-0 (0% win rate)
San Diego State Aztecs
0-0 (0% win rate)
TOL is 0-0 vs San Diego State Aztecs at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
Aztecs wins31 – 26
2023
TOL wins24 – 14
2022
TOL wins27 – 10
2021
Aztecs wins46 – 27
2020
TOL wins24 – 14
2019
TOL wins24 – 8
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Toledo Rockets
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
San Diego State Aztecs
50-24 overall2019
11-3
2020
4-4
2021
12-2
2022
7-6
2023
9-4
2024
7-5
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Network
TBD
Stadium
Unknown Stadium