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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 5
TBDAI Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs @ TOL

Saturday, September 26, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 58% confidence

Toledo RocketsWIN PROBABILITYSan Diego State Aztecs
53%
47%

MODEL PICK

Toledo Rockets

CONFIDENCE

58%

3

Home Edge

3

Neutral

1

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Rockets 50/10060/100 Aztecs

Toledo Rockets

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

San Diego State Aztecs

60/100 — 50-24 over 6 seasons

TOL rates 50/100 vs San Diego State Aztecs at 60/100 — a 10-point gap in program quality.

Rockets 0/1000/100 Aztecs

Toledo Rockets

0-0 (0% win rate)

San Diego State Aztecs

0-0 (0% win rate)

TOL is 0-0 vs San Diego State Aztecs at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

42
2024
Aztecs wins3126
2023
TOL wins2414
2022
TOL wins2710
2021
Aztecs wins4627
2020
TOL wins2414
2019
TOL wins248

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Toledo Rockets

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

San Diego State Aztecs

50-24 overall
2019
11-3
2020
4-4
2021
12-2
2022
7-6
2023
9-4
2024
7-5

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 AM UTC

Network

TBD

Stadium

Unknown Stadium