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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 5
TBDAI Prediction

SHSU @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Saturday, September 26, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 63% confidence

Texas Tech Red RaidersWIN PROBABILITYSam Houston Bearkats
55%
45%

MODEL PICK

Texas Tech Red Raiders

CONFIDENCE

63%

4

Home Edge

3

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Raiders 60/10050/100 Bearkats

Texas Tech Red Raiders

60/100 — 38-34 over 6 seasons

Sam Houston Bearkats

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

Texas Tech Red Raiders rates 60/100 vs SHSU at 50/100 — a 10-point gap in program quality.

Raiders 0/1000/100 Bearkats

Texas Tech Red Raiders

0-0 (0% win rate)

Sam Houston Bearkats

0-0 (0% win rate)

Texas Tech Red Raiders is 0-0 vs SHSU at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
SHSU wins3611
2023
Raiders wins3115
2022
Raiders wins2411
2021
Raiders wins4310
2020
SHSU wins3225
2019
SHSU wins3926

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Texas Tech Red Raiders

38-34 overall
2019
4-8
2020
4-4
2021
7-6
2022
8-5
2023
7-6
2024
8-5

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

Sam Houston Bearkats

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 AM UTC

Network

TBD

Stadium

Jones AT&T Stadium