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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPNAI Prediction

Oregon Ducks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Saturday, September 12, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 57% confidence

Oklahoma State CowboysWIN PROBABILITYOregon Ducks
53%
47%

MODEL PICK

Oklahoma State Cowboys

CONFIDENCE

57%

2

Home Edge

3

Neutral

2

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Cowboys 70/10078/100 Ducks

Oklahoma State Cowboys

70/100 — 50-26 over 6 seasons

Oregon Ducks

78/100 — 53-16 over 6 seasons

Oklahoma State Cowboys rates 70/100 vs Oregon Ducks at 78/100 — a 8-point gap in program quality.

Cowboys 0/1000/100 Ducks

Oklahoma State Cowboys

0-0 (0% win rate)

Oregon Ducks

0-0 (0% win rate)

Oklahoma State Cowboys is 0-0 vs Oregon Ducks at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

42
2024
Cowboys wins2110
2023
Ducks wins4433
2022
Cowboys wins3829
2021
Cowboys wins4233
2020
Ducks wins2316
2019
Cowboys wins249

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

50-26 overall
2019
8-4
2020
8-3
2021
12-2AP #4
2022
7-6
2023
7-6
2024
8-5

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

Oregon Ducks

53-16 overall
2019
4-3
2020
4-3
2021
10-4AP #4
2022
10-3AP #6
2023
12-2AP #3
2024
13-1AP #1

AP Ranked in 4 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM UTC

Network

ESPN

Stadium

Boone Pickens Stadium