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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 1
NBCAI PredictionOregon Ducks @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence
Notre Dame Fighting IrishWIN PROBABILITYOregon Ducks
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
CONFIDENCE
52%
2
Home Edge
3
Neutral
2
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Irish 82/10078/100 Ducks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons
Oregon Ducks
78/100 — 53-16 over 6 seasons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish rates 82/100 vs Oregon Ducks at 78/100 — a 4-point gap in program quality.
Irish 88/10093/100 Ducks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
14-2 (88% win rate)
Oregon Ducks
13-1 (93% win rate)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 14-2 vs Oregon Ducks at 13-1 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
Ducks wins21 – 17
2023
Irish wins33 – 11
2022
Ducks wins28 – 24
2021
Irish wins42 – 15
2020
Irish wins24 – 21
2019
Ducks wins44 – 35
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
66-14 overall2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1
AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons
Oregon Ducks
53-16 overall2019
4-3
2020
4-3
2021
10-4AP #4
2022
10-3AP #6
2023
12-2AP #3
2024
13-1AP #1
AP Ranked in 4 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM UTC
Network
NBC
Stadium
Notre Dame Stadium