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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 1
NBCAI Prediction

Oregon Ducks @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 5, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence

Notre Dame Fighting IrishWIN PROBABILITYOregon Ducks
51%
49%

MODEL PICK

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

CONFIDENCE

52%

2

Home Edge

3

Neutral

2

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Irish 82/10078/100 Ducks

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons

Oregon Ducks

78/100 — 53-16 over 6 seasons

Notre Dame Fighting Irish rates 82/100 vs Oregon Ducks at 78/100 — a 4-point gap in program quality.

Irish 88/10093/100 Ducks

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

14-2 (88% win rate)

Oregon Ducks

13-1 (93% win rate)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 14-2 vs Oregon Ducks at 13-1 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
Ducks wins2117
2023
Irish wins3311
2022
Ducks wins2824
2021
Irish wins4215
2020
Irish wins2421
2019
Ducks wins4435

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

66-14 overall
2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1

AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons

Oregon Ducks

53-16 overall
2019
4-3
2020
4-3
2021
10-4AP #4
2022
10-3AP #6
2023
12-2AP #3
2024
13-1AP #1

AP Ranked in 4 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM UTC

Network

NBC

Stadium

Notre Dame Stadium