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WEEK 6
TBDAI PredictionNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, October 3, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence
North Carolina Tar HeelsWIN PROBABILITYNotre Dame Fighting Irish
49%
51%
MODEL PICK
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
CONFIDENCE
52%
3
Home Edge
2
Neutral
2
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Heels 61/10082/100 Irish
North Carolina Tar Heels
61/100 — 43-33 over 6 seasons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons
North Carolina Tar Heels rates 61/100 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 82/100 — a 21-point gap in program quality.
Heels 0/1000/100 Irish
North Carolina Tar Heels
0-0 (0% win rate)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0-0 (0% win rate)
North Carolina Tar Heels is 0-0 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
Irish wins21 – 17
2023
Heels wins33 – 11
2022
Irish wins28 – 24
2021
Heels wins42 – 15
2020
Heels wins24 – 21
2019
Irish wins44 – 35
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
North Carolina Tar Heels
43-33 overall2019
3-9
2020
8-4
2021
11-3AP #10
2022
9-4
2023
8-5
2024
4-8
AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
66-14 overall2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1
AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 AM UTC
Network
TBD
Stadium
Kenan Memorial Stadium