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WEEK 6
TBDAI Prediction

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 3, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence

North Carolina Tar HeelsWIN PROBABILITYNotre Dame Fighting Irish
49%
51%

MODEL PICK

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

CONFIDENCE

52%

3

Home Edge

2

Neutral

2

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Heels 61/10082/100 Irish

North Carolina Tar Heels

61/100 — 43-33 over 6 seasons

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons

North Carolina Tar Heels rates 61/100 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 82/100 — a 21-point gap in program quality.

Heels 0/1000/100 Irish

North Carolina Tar Heels

0-0 (0% win rate)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

0-0 (0% win rate)

North Carolina Tar Heels is 0-0 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
Irish wins2117
2023
Heels wins3311
2022
Irish wins2824
2021
Heels wins4215
2020
Heels wins2421
2019
Irish wins4435

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

North Carolina Tar Heels

43-33 overall
2019
3-9
2020
8-4
2021
11-3AP #10
2022
9-4
2023
8-5
2024
4-8

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

66-14 overall
2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1

AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 AM UTC

Network

TBD

Stadium

Kenan Memorial Stadium