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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 4
USA NetAI PredictionUNT @ TXST
Saturday, September 19, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 67% confidence
Texas State BobcatsWIN PROBABILITYNorth Texas Mean Green
57%
43%
MODEL PICK
Texas State Bobcats
CONFIDENCE
67%
2
Home Edge
5
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Bobcats 50/10050/100 Green
Texas State Bobcats
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
North Texas Mean Green
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
TXST rates 50/100 vs UNT at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Bobcats 0/1000/100 Green
Texas State Bobcats
0-0 (0% win rate)
North Texas Mean Green
0-0 (0% win rate)
TXST is 0-0 vs UNT at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
5–1
2024
UNT wins31 – 26
2023
TXST wins28 – 17
2022
TXST wins40 – 12
2021
TXST wins31 – 20
2020
TXST wins44 – 36
2019
TXST wins35 – 19
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Texas State Bobcats
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
North Texas Mean Green
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM UTC
Network
USA Net
Stadium
Unknown Stadium