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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
MW+AI PredictionNMSU @ HAW
Sunday, September 13, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsWIN PROBABILITYNew Mexico State Aggies
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Warriors 50/10050/100 Aggies
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
New Mexico State Aggies
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
HAW rates 50/100 vs NMSU at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Warriors 0/1000/100 Aggies
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
0-0 (0% win rate)
New Mexico State Aggies
0-0 (0% win rate)
HAW is 0-0 vs NMSU at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
NMSU wins31 – 23
2023
NMSU wins44 – 11
2022
HAW wins35 – 12
2021
HAW wins48 – 15
2020
HAW wins31 – 9
2019
NMSU wins39 – 25
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
New Mexico State Aggies
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 13, 3:59 AM UTC
Network
MW+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium