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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 4
ESPN+AI Prediction

MUR @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Saturday, September 19, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 76% confidence

Oklahoma State CowboysWIN PROBABILITYMurray State Racers
61%
39%

MODEL PICK

Oklahoma State Cowboys

CONFIDENCE

76%

6

Home Edge

1

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Cowboys 70/10050/100 Racers

Oklahoma State Cowboys

70/100 — 50-26 over 6 seasons

Murray State Racers

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

Oklahoma State Cowboys rates 70/100 vs MUR at 50/100 — a 20-point gap in program quality.

Cowboys 0/1000/100 Racers

Oklahoma State Cowboys

0-0 (0% win rate)

Murray State Racers

0-0 (0% win rate)

Oklahoma State Cowboys is 0-0 vs MUR at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

42
2024
Cowboys wins3711
2023
MUR wins2915
2022
Cowboys wins277
2021
Cowboys wins3931
2020
Cowboys wins3225
2019
MUR wins4231

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

50-26 overall
2019
8-4
2020
8-3
2021
12-2AP #4
2022
7-6
2023
7-6
2024
8-5

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

Murray State Racers

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM UTC

Network

ESPN+

Stadium

Boone Pickens Stadium