Back to CFB Predictions
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPN+AI PredictionMUR @ MTSU
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 60% confidence
Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersWIN PROBABILITYMurray State Racers
54%
46%
MODEL PICK
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
CONFIDENCE
60%
2
Home Edge
5
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Raiders 50/10050/100 Racers
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Murray State Racers
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
MTSU rates 50/100 vs MUR at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Raiders 0/1000/100 Racers
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
0-0 (0% win rate)
Murray State Racers
0-0 (0% win rate)
MTSU is 0-0 vs MUR at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
MTSU wins28 – 10
2023
MTSU wins40 – 23
2022
MTSU wins31 – 10
2021
MUR wins44 – 34
2020
MTSU wins35 – 22
2019
MUR wins48 – 44
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Murray State Racers
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium