Back to CFB Predictions
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPN+AI PredictionMTSU @ MRSH
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 55% confidence
Marshall Thundering HerdWIN PROBABILITYMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders
48%
52%
MODEL PICK
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
CONFIDENCE
55%
1
Home Edge
5
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Herd 50/10050/100 Raiders
Marshall Thundering Herd
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
MRSH rates 50/100 vs MTSU at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Herd 0/1000/100 Raiders
Marshall Thundering Herd
0-0 (0% win rate)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
0-0 (0% win rate)
MRSH is 0-0 vs MTSU at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
2–4
2024
MRSH wins38 – 17
2023
MTSU wins21 – 15
2022
MTSU wins23 – 16
2021
MTSU wins34 – 13
2020
MRSH wins26 – 18
2019
MTSU wins46 – 40
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Marshall Thundering Herd
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium