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WEEK 2
ABCAI PredictionMichigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence
Penn State Nittany LionsWIN PROBABILITYMichigan Wolverines
49%
51%
MODEL PICK
Michigan Wolverines
CONFIDENCE
52%
2
Home Edge
3
Neutral
2
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Lions 80/10086/100 Wolverines
Penn State Nittany Lions
80/100 — 60-18 over 6 seasons
Michigan Wolverines
86/100 — 59-16 over 6 seasons
Penn State Nittany Lions rates 80/100 vs Michigan Wolverines at 86/100 — a 6-point gap in program quality.
Lions 81/10062/100 Wolverines
Penn State Nittany Lions
13-3 (81% win rate)
Michigan Wolverines
8-5 (62% win rate)
Penn State Nittany Lions is 13-3 vs Michigan Wolverines at 8-5 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
1–5
2024
Wolverines wins43 – 24
2023
Lions wins32 – 21
2022
Wolverines wins39 – 31
2021
Wolverines wins31 – 9
2020
Wolverines wins38 – 30
2019
Wolverines wins49 – 45
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Penn State Nittany Lions
60-18 overall2019
11-3AP #7
2020
4-5
2021
11-2AP #4
2022
11-2AP #7
2023
10-3AP #10
2024
13-3AP #4
AP Ranked in 5 of 6 seasons
Michigan Wolverines
59-16 overall2019
9-4AP #14
2020
2-4
2021
12-2AP #6
2022
13-1AP #3
2023
15-0AP #1
2024
8-5AP #9
AP Ranked in 5 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM UTC
Network
ABC
Stadium
Beaver Stadium