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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ABCAI Prediction

Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, September 12, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 52% confidence

Penn State Nittany LionsWIN PROBABILITYMichigan Wolverines
49%
51%

MODEL PICK

Michigan Wolverines

CONFIDENCE

52%

2

Home Edge

3

Neutral

2

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Lions 80/10086/100 Wolverines

Penn State Nittany Lions

80/100 — 60-18 over 6 seasons

Michigan Wolverines

86/100 — 59-16 over 6 seasons

Penn State Nittany Lions rates 80/100 vs Michigan Wolverines at 86/100 — a 6-point gap in program quality.

Lions 81/10062/100 Wolverines

Penn State Nittany Lions

13-3 (81% win rate)

Michigan Wolverines

8-5 (62% win rate)

Penn State Nittany Lions is 13-3 vs Michigan Wolverines at 8-5 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

15
2024
Wolverines wins4324
2023
Lions wins3221
2022
Wolverines wins3931
2021
Wolverines wins319
2020
Wolverines wins3830
2019
Wolverines wins4945

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Penn State Nittany Lions

60-18 overall
2019
11-3AP #7
2020
4-5
2021
11-2AP #4
2022
11-2AP #7
2023
10-3AP #10
2024
13-3AP #4

AP Ranked in 5 of 6 seasons

Michigan Wolverines

59-16 overall
2019
9-4AP #14
2020
2-4
2021
12-2AP #6
2022
13-1AP #3
2023
15-0AP #1
2024
8-5AP #9

AP Ranked in 5 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM UTC

Network

ABC

Stadium

Beaver Stadium