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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 4
NBCAI Prediction

Michigan State Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 19, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 76% confidence

Notre Dame Fighting IrishWIN PROBABILITYMichigan State Spartans
61%
39%

MODEL PICK

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

CONFIDENCE

76%

3

Home Edge

3

Neutral

1

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Irish 82/10066/100 Spartans

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons

Michigan State Spartans

66/100 — 34-35 over 6 seasons

Notre Dame Fighting Irish rates 82/100 vs Michigan State Spartans at 66/100 — a 16-point gap in program quality.

Irish 0/1000/100 Spartans

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

0-0 (0% win rate)

Michigan State Spartans

0-0 (0% win rate)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 0-0 vs Michigan State Spartans at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

60
2024
Irish wins4111
2023
Irish wins2513
2022
Irish wins4028
2021
Irish wins2515
2020
Irish wins3410
2019
Irish wins259

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

66-14 overall
2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1

AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons

Michigan State Spartans

34-35 overall
2019
7-6
2020
2-5
2021
11-2AP #3
2022
5-7
2023
4-8
2024
5-7

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM UTC

Network

NBC

Stadium

Notre Dame Stadium