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WEEK 4
NBCAI PredictionMichigan State Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, September 19, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 76% confidence
Notre Dame Fighting IrishWIN PROBABILITYMichigan State Spartans
61%
39%
MODEL PICK
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
CONFIDENCE
76%
3
Home Edge
3
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Irish 82/10066/100 Spartans
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
82/100 — 66-14 over 6 seasons
Michigan State Spartans
66/100 — 34-35 over 6 seasons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish rates 82/100 vs Michigan State Spartans at 66/100 — a 16-point gap in program quality.
Irish 0/1000/100 Spartans
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0-0 (0% win rate)
Michigan State Spartans
0-0 (0% win rate)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 0-0 vs Michigan State Spartans at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
6–0
2024
Irish wins41 – 11
2023
Irish wins25 – 13
2022
Irish wins40 – 28
2021
Irish wins25 – 15
2020
Irish wins34 – 10
2019
Irish wins25 – 9
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
66-14 overall2019
10-2AP #4
2020
10-2AP #4
2021
11-2AP #5
2022
9-4AP #9
2023
12-2AP #6
2024
14-2AP #1
AP Ranked in 6 of 6 seasons
Michigan State Spartans
34-35 overall2019
7-6
2020
2-5
2021
11-2AP #3
2022
5-7
2023
4-8
2024
5-7
AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM UTC
Network
NBC
Stadium
Notre Dame Stadium