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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 5
ESPN+AI PredictionMERC @ WKU
Saturday, September 26, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Western Kentucky HilltoppersWIN PROBABILITYMercyhurst Lakers
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Hilltoppers 50/10050/100 Lakers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Mercyhurst Lakers
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
WKU rates 50/100 vs MERC at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Hilltoppers 0/1000/100 Lakers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
0-0 (0% win rate)
Mercyhurst Lakers
0-0 (0% win rate)
WKU is 0-0 vs MERC at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
WKU wins43 – 16
2023
WKU wins34 – 9
2022
MERC wins27 – 21
2021
WKU wins41 – 27
2020
MERC wins38 – 12
2019
MERC wins48 – 44
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Mercyhurst Lakers
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium