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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
FS1AI PredictionMRSH @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 78% confidence
Penn State Nittany LionsWIN PROBABILITYMarshall Thundering Herd
62%
38%
MODEL PICK
Penn State Nittany Lions
CONFIDENCE
78%
5
Home Edge
2
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Lions 80/10050/100 Herd
Penn State Nittany Lions
80/100 — 60-18 over 6 seasons
Marshall Thundering Herd
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Penn State Nittany Lions rates 80/100 vs MRSH at 50/100 — a 30-point gap in program quality.
Lions 0/1000/100 Herd
Penn State Nittany Lions
0-0 (0% win rate)
Marshall Thundering Herd
0-0 (0% win rate)
Penn State Nittany Lions is 0-0 vs MRSH at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
Lions wins29 – 11
2023
MRSH wins44 – 27
2022
Lions wins22 – 7
2021
Lions wins44 – 21
2020
MRSH wins34 – 27
2019
Lions wins23 – 8
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Penn State Nittany Lions
60-18 overall2019
11-3AP #7
2020
4-5
2021
11-2AP #4
2022
11-2AP #7
2023
10-3AP #10
2024
13-3AP #4
AP Ranked in 5 of 6 seasons
Marshall Thundering Herd
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM UTC
Network
FS1
Stadium
Beaver Stadium