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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPN+AI PredictionLIN @ MOST
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Missouri State BearsWIN PROBABILITYLindenwood Lions
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Missouri State Bears
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Bears 50/10050/100 Lions
Missouri State Bears
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Lindenwood Lions
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
MOST rates 50/100 vs LIN at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Bears 0/1000/100 Lions
Missouri State Bears
0-0 (0% win rate)
Lindenwood Lions
0-0 (0% win rate)
MOST is 0-0 vs LIN at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
LIN wins24 – 15
2023
MOST wins43 – 24
2022
LIN wins32 – 8
2021
MOST wins39 – 33
2020
MOST wins31 – 17
2019
LIN wins38 – 24
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Missouri State Bears
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Lindenwood Lions
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium