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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
NBCAI Prediction

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, September 12, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 57% confidence

Iowa HawkeyesWIN PROBABILITYIowa State Cyclones
53%
47%

MODEL PICK

Iowa Hawkeyes

CONFIDENCE

57%

4

Home Edge

2

Neutral

1

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Hawkeyes 68/10060/100 Cyclones

Iowa Hawkeyes

68/100 — 48-27 over 6 seasons

Iowa State Cyclones

60/100 — 41-34 over 6 seasons

Iowa Hawkeyes rates 68/100 vs Iowa State Cyclones at 60/100 — a 8-point gap in program quality.

Hawkeyes 0/1000/100 Cyclones

Iowa Hawkeyes

0-0 (0% win rate)

Iowa State Cyclones

0-0 (0% win rate)

Iowa Hawkeyes is 0-0 vs Iowa State Cyclones at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
Hawkeyes wins2415
2023
Cyclones wins277
2022
Hawkeyes wins4622
2021
Cyclones wins2419
2020
Cyclones wins248
2019
Hawkeyes wins259

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

Iowa Hawkeyes

48-27 overall
2019
10-4AP #8
2020
6-2
2021
10-4AP #2
2022
8-5
2023
6-7
2024
8-5

AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons

Iowa State Cyclones

41-34 overall
2019
7-6
2020
9-3AP #10
2021
7-6
2022
4-8
2023
7-5
2024
7-6

AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 12, 11:30 PM UTC

Network

NBC

Stadium

Kinnick Stadium