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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
NBCAI PredictionIowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 57% confidence
Iowa HawkeyesWIN PROBABILITYIowa State Cyclones
53%
47%
MODEL PICK
Iowa Hawkeyes
CONFIDENCE
57%
4
Home Edge
2
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Hawkeyes 68/10060/100 Cyclones
Iowa Hawkeyes
68/100 — 48-27 over 6 seasons
Iowa State Cyclones
60/100 — 41-34 over 6 seasons
Iowa Hawkeyes rates 68/100 vs Iowa State Cyclones at 60/100 — a 8-point gap in program quality.
Hawkeyes 0/1000/100 Cyclones
Iowa Hawkeyes
0-0 (0% win rate)
Iowa State Cyclones
0-0 (0% win rate)
Iowa Hawkeyes is 0-0 vs Iowa State Cyclones at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
Hawkeyes wins24 – 15
2023
Cyclones wins27 – 7
2022
Hawkeyes wins46 – 22
2021
Cyclones wins24 – 19
2020
Cyclones wins24 – 8
2019
Hawkeyes wins25 – 9
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Iowa Hawkeyes
48-27 overall2019
10-4AP #8
2020
6-2
2021
10-4AP #2
2022
8-5
2023
6-7
2024
8-5
AP Ranked in 2 of 6 seasons
Iowa State Cyclones
41-34 overall2019
7-6
2020
9-3AP #10
2021
7-6
2022
4-8
2023
7-5
2024
7-6
AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 11:30 PM UTC
Network
NBC
Stadium
Kinnick Stadium