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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 5
USA NetAI PredictionUIW @ TXST
Saturday, September 26, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
Texas State BobcatsWIN PROBABILITYIncarnate Word Cardinals
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
Texas State Bobcats
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Bobcats 50/10050/100 Cardinals
Texas State Bobcats
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Incarnate Word Cardinals
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
TXST rates 50/100 vs UIW at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Bobcats 0/1000/100 Cardinals
Texas State Bobcats
0-0 (0% win rate)
Incarnate Word Cardinals
0-0 (0% win rate)
TXST is 0-0 vs UIW at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
UIW wins36 – 19
2023
UIW wins29 – 24
2022
TXST wins31 – 19
2021
TXST wins24 – 14
2020
TXST wins27 – 8
2019
UIW wins46 – 39
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Texas State Bobcats
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Incarnate Word Cardinals
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM UTC
Network
USA Net
Stadium
Unknown Stadium