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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
MW+AI PredictionILST @ NIU
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 62% confidence
Northern Illinois HuskiesWIN PROBABILITYIllinois State Redbirds
45%
55%
MODEL PICK
Illinois State Redbirds
CONFIDENCE
62%
1
Home Edge
5
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Huskies 50/10050/100 Redbirds
Northern Illinois Huskies
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Illinois State Redbirds
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
NIU rates 50/100 vs ILST at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Huskies 0/1000/100 Redbirds
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-0 (0% win rate)
Illinois State Redbirds
0-0 (0% win rate)
NIU is 0-0 vs ILST at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
1–5
2024
ILST wins29 – 10
2023
ILST wins27 – 17
2022
ILST wins39 – 31
2021
ILST wins32 – 18
2020
ILST wins42 – 22
2019
NIU wins23 – 8
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Northern Illinois Huskies
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Illinois State Redbirds
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
MW+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium