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WEEK 4
ESPN+AI Prediction

GAST @ UCF Knights

Saturday, September 19, 2026

AI Condition Layer Analysis

XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 62% confidence

UCF KnightsWIN PROBABILITYGeorgia State Panthers
55%
45%

MODEL PICK

UCF Knights

CONFIDENCE

62%

4

Home Edge

3

Neutral

0

Away Edge

Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)

Knights 58/10050/100 Panthers

UCF Knights

58/100 — 49-27 over 6 seasons

Georgia State Panthers

50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons

UCF Knights rates 58/100 vs GAST at 50/100 — a 8-point gap in program quality.

Knights 0/1000/100 Panthers

UCF Knights

0-0 (0% win rate)

Georgia State Panthers

0-0 (0% win rate)

UCF Knights is 0-0 vs GAST at 0-0 this season.

Series History (2019–2024)

33
2024
GAST wins3810
2023
GAST wins4233
2022
Knights wins2315
2021
Knights wins2410
2020
GAST wins2724
2019
Knights wins227

6-Season Program History (2019–2024)

UCF Knights

49-27 overall
2019
10-3
2020
6-4
2021
9-4
2022
9-5
2023
6-7
2024
9-4

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

Georgia State Panthers

36-36 overall
2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6

AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons

About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.

Game Information

Kickoff

Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM UTC

Network

ESPN+

Stadium

FBC Mortgage Stadium