Back to CFB Predictions
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
FS1AI PredictionDUKE @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 67% confidence
Illinois Fighting IlliniWIN PROBABILITYDuke Blue Devils
57%
43%
MODEL PICK
Illinois Fighting Illini
CONFIDENCE
67%
5
Home Edge
2
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Illini 55/10050/100 Devils
Illinois Fighting Illini
55/100 — 35-36 over 6 seasons
Duke Blue Devils
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Illinois Fighting Illini rates 55/100 vs DUKE at 50/100 — a 5-point gap in program quality.
Illini 0/1000/100 Devils
Illinois Fighting Illini
0-0 (0% win rate)
Duke Blue Devils
0-0 (0% win rate)
Illinois Fighting Illini is 0-0 vs DUKE at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
4–2
2024
Illini wins31 – 24
2023
Illini wins41 – 26
2022
Illini wins42 – 38
2021
DUKE wins39 – 25
2020
Illini wins32 – 9
2019
DUKE wins42 – 31
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Illinois Fighting Illini
35-36 overall2019
6-7
2020
2-6
2021
5-7
2022
8-5AP #12
2023
5-7
2024
9-4
AP Ranked in 1 of 6 seasons
Duke Blue Devils
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM UTC
Network
FS1
Stadium
Memorial Stadium