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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
MW+AI PredictionCP @ SJSU
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 53% confidence
San José State SpartansWIN PROBABILITYCal Poly Mustangs
51%
49%
MODEL PICK
San José State Spartans
CONFIDENCE
53%
1
Home Edge
6
Neutral
0
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Spartans 50/10050/100 Mustangs
San José State Spartans
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Cal Poly Mustangs
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
SJSU rates 50/100 vs CP at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Spartans 0/1000/100 Mustangs
San José State Spartans
0-0 (0% win rate)
Cal Poly Mustangs
0-0 (0% win rate)
SJSU is 0-0 vs CP at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
3–3
2024
SJSU wins49 – 7
2023
SJSU wins27 – 15
2022
CP wins26 – 19
2021
CP wins48 – 33
2020
CP wins45 – 28
2019
SJSU wins34 – 18
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
San José State Spartans
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Cal Poly Mustangs
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 AM UTC
Network
MW+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium