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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 2
ESPN+AI PredictionARST @ MEM
Saturday, September 5, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 62% confidence
Memphis TigersWIN PROBABILITYArkansas State Red Wolves
45%
55%
MODEL PICK
Arkansas State Red Wolves
CONFIDENCE
62%
1
Home Edge
5
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Tigers 50/10050/100 Wolves
Memphis Tigers
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Arkansas State Red Wolves
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
MEM rates 50/100 vs ARST at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Tigers 0/1000/100 Wolves
Memphis Tigers
0-0 (0% win rate)
Arkansas State Red Wolves
0-0 (0% win rate)
MEM is 0-0 vs ARST at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
1–5
2024
ARST wins43 – 24
2023
MEM wins32 – 21
2022
ARST wins39 – 31
2021
ARST wins31 – 9
2020
ARST wins38 – 30
2019
ARST wins49 – 45
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Memphis Tigers
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Arkansas State Red Wolves
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 11:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium