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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
WEEK 3
ESPN+AI PredictionALST @ TROY
Saturday, September 12, 2026
AI Condition Layer Analysis
XGBoost ML model trained on 2019–2025 CFB seasons · 55% confidence
Troy TrojansWIN PROBABILITYAlabama State Hornets
48%
52%
MODEL PICK
Alabama State Hornets
CONFIDENCE
55%
1
Home Edge
5
Neutral
1
Away Edge
Condition Layers (7 factors analyzed)
Trojans 50/10050/100 Hornets
Troy Trojans
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
Alabama State Hornets
50/100 — 36-36 over 6 seasons
TROY rates 50/100 vs ALST at 50/100 — a 0-point gap in program quality.
Trojans 0/1000/100 Hornets
Troy Trojans
0-0 (0% win rate)
Alabama State Hornets
0-0 (0% win rate)
TROY is 0-0 vs ALST at 0-0 this season.
Series History (2019–2024)
2–4
2024
ALST wins43 – 24
2023
TROY wins40 – 8
2022
ALST wins31 – 17
2021
TROY wins39 – 32
2020
ALST wins32 – 14
2019
ALST wins46 – 39
6-Season Program History (2019–2024)
Troy Trojans
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
Alabama State Hornets
36-36 overall2019
6-6
2020
6-6
2021
6-6
2022
6-6
2023
6-6
2024
6-6
AP Ranked in 0 of 6 seasons
About this model: Predictions are generated by an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 6+ years of college football data (2019–2025), including win/loss records, scoring offense/defense, AP rankings, strength of schedule, home field advantage, and head-to-head matchup history. Model historical accuracy: ~68%. For entertainment purposes only.
Game Information
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM UTC
Network
ESPN+
Stadium
Unknown Stadium